As part of the
decision to adopt the Paris Agreement, the IPCC was invited to produce, in
2018, a Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This
Report, released in October 2018, has the imposing title:
Global Warming of 1.5 °C: IPCC special report on
the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related
global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the
global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and
efforts to eradicate poverty
This Report is important because:
·
This is the first report to be
released since the coming into force of the Paris Agreement.
·
Many countries, including
India, are already feeling the extreme impact of climate change.
Major Questions Addressed in the Special Report
Why are we talking
about 1.5°C?
Climate
change represents an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to human
societies and the planet. In recognition of this, the overwhelming majority of
countries around the world adopted the Paris Agreement in December 2015, the
central aim of which includes pursuing efforts to limit global temperature rise
to 1.5°C.
How close are we to
1.5°C?
Human–induced
warming has already reached about 1°C above pre-industrial levels. If the
current warming rate continues, the world would reach human–induced global
warming of 1.5°C around 2040.
What are the impacts
of 1.5°C and 2°C of warming?
The impacts
of climate change are being felt in every inhabited continent and in the
oceans. But they are not spread uniformly across the globe, and different parts
of the world experience impacts differently. An average warming of 1.5°C across
the whole globe raises the risk of heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, amongst
many other potential impacts. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C can
help reduce these risks.
What kind of pathways
limit warming to 1.5°C and are we on track?
There is no
definitive way to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial
levels. This Special Report identifies two main conceptual pathways to
illustrate different interpretations. One stabilises global temperature at, or
just below, 1.5°C. Another sees global temperature temporarily exceed 1.5°C
before coming back down. Countries’ pledges to reduce their emissions are
currently not in line with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
What transitions
could enable limiting global warming to 1.5°C?
In order to
limit warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, the world would need to
transform in a number of complex and connected ways. Meeting this challenge
would require a rapid escalation in the current scale and pace of change,
particularly in the coming decades.
Why is adaptation
important in a 1.5°C warmer world?
Adaptation
is the adjustment process to current or expected changes in climate and its
effects. Even though climate change is a global problem, its impacts are
experienced differently across the world. This means that responses are often
specific to the local context, and so people in different regions are adapting
in different ways. A rise in global temperature from 1°C to 1.5°C, and beyond,
increases the need for adaptation.
What are the
connections between sustainable development and limiting global warming to
1.5°C?
Sustainable
development seeks to meet the needs of people living today without compromising
the needs of future generations, while balancing social, economic and
environmental considerations. The 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
include targets for eradicating poverty; ensuring health, energy and food
security; reducing inequality; protecting ecosystems; pursuing sustainable
cities and economies; and a goal for climate action (SDG13). Climate change
affects the ability to achieve sustainable development goals and limiting
warming to 1.5°C will help meet some sustainable development targets. Pursuing
sustainable development will influence emissions, impacts and vulnerabilities.
Responses to climate change in the form of adaptation and mitigation will also
interact with sustainable development with positive effects, known as
synergies, or negative effects, known as trade-offs. Responses to climate
change can be planned to maximize synergies and limit trade-offs with
sustainable development.
What are the pathways
to achieving poverty reduction and reducing inequalities while reaching the
1.5°C world?
There are
ways to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Of the
pathways that exist, some simultaneously achieve sustainable development. They
entail a mix of measures that lower emissions and reduce the impacts of climate
change, while contributing to poverty eradication and reducing inequalities.
Which pathways are possible and desirable will differ between and within
regions and nations. This is due to the fact that development progress to date
has been uneven and climate-related risks are unevenly distributed. Flexible
governance would be needed to ensure that such pathways are inclusive, fair,
and equitable to avoid poor and disadvantaged populations becoming worse off.
‘Climate-Resilient Development Pathways’ (CRDPs) offer possibilities to achieve
both equitable and low-carbon futures.
