World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity (Part II) – A Second Notice in 2017

On the twenty-fifth anniversary of the 1992 Warning (See previous post), more than 15,000 scientists have signed a second notice. In the document the scientists look back at the 1992 Warning and evaluate the human response by exploring available time-series data.

Since 1992, with the exception of stabilizing the stratospheric ozone layer, humanity has failed to make sufficient progress in generally solving these foreseen environmental challenges, and alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse. Especially troubling is the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change due to rising GHGs from burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and agricultural production— particularly from farming ruminants for meat consumption. Moreover, we have unleashed a mass extinction event, the sixth in roughly 540 million years, wherein many current life forms could be annihilated or at least committed to extinction by the end of this century.

Humanity is now being given a second notice, as illustrated by these alarming trends. We are jeopardizing our future by not reining in our intense but geographically and demographically uneven material consumption and by not perceiving continued rapid population growth as a primary driver behind many ecological and even societal threats. By failing to adequately limit population growth, reassess the role of an economy rooted in growth, reduce greenhouse gases, incentivize renewable energy, protect habitat, restore ecosystems, curb pollution, halt defaunation, and constrain invasive alien species, humanity is not taking the urgent steps needed to safeguard our imperilled biosphere.

As most political leaders respond to pressure, scientists, media influencers, and lay citizens must insist that their governments take immediate action as a moral imperative to current and future generations of human and other life. With a groundswell of organized grassroots efforts, dogged opposition can be overcome and political leaders compelled to do the right thing. It is also time to re-examine and change our individual behaviours, including limiting our own reproduction (ideally to replacement level at most) and drastically diminishing our per capita consumption of fossil fuels, meat, and other resources.

The rapid global decline in ozone- depleting substances shows that we can make positive change when we act decisively. We have also made advancements in reducing extreme poverty and hunger. Other notable progress include the rapid decline in fertility rates in many regions attributable to investments in girls’ and women’s education, the promising decline in the rate of deforestation in some regions, and the rapid growth in the renewable-energy sector. We have learned much since 1992, but the advancement of urgently needed changes in environmental policy, human behaviour, and global inequities is still far from sufficient.

Sustainability transitions come about in diverse ways, and all require civil-society pressure and evidence-based advocacy, political leadership, and a solid understanding of policy instruments, markets, and other drivers.

Examples of diverse and effective steps humanity can take to transition to sustainability include the following (not in order of importance or urgency):

(a)          prioritizing the enactment of connected well-funded and well-managed reserves for a significant proportion of the world’s terrestrial, marine, freshwater, and aerial habitats;

(b)          maintaining nature’s ecosystem services by halting the conversion of forests, grasslands, and other native habitats;

(c)          restoring native plant communities at large scales, particularly forest landscapes;

(d)          rewilding regions with native species, especially apex predators, to restore ecological processes and dynamics;

(e)          developing and adopting adequate policy instruments to remedy defaunation, the poaching crisis, and the exploitation and trade of threatened species;

(f)           reducing food waste through education and better infrastructure;

(g)          promoting dietary shifts towards mostly plant-based foods;

(h)         further reducing fertility rates by ensuring that women and men have access to education and voluntary family-planning services, especially where such resources are still lacking;

(i)            increasing outdoor nature education for children, as well as the overall engagement of society in the appreciation of nature;

(j)           divesting of monetary investments and purchases to encourage positive environmental change;

(k)          devising and promoting new green technologies and massively adopting renewable energy sources while phasing out subsidies to energy production through fossil fuels;

(l)            revising our economy to reduce wealth inequality and ensure that prices, taxation, and incentive systems take into account the real costs which consumption patterns impose on our environment; and

(m)       estimating a scientifically defensible, sustainable human population size for the long term while rallying nations and leaders to support that vital goal.

To prevent widespread misery and catastrophic biodiversity loss, humanity must practice a more environmentally sustainable alternative to business as usual. Soon it will be too late to shift course away from our failing trajectory, and time is running out. We must recognize, in our day-to-day lives and in our governing institutions, that Earth with all its life is our only home.

World Scientists' Warning to Humanity (Part I) - The First Notice in 1992

In November 1992, 1700 of the world's leading scientists, including the majority of Nobel laureates in the sciences, issued an appeal entitled the World Scientists' Warning to Humanity.

The statement began with this introduction:

Human beings and the natural world are on a collision course. Human activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the environment and on critical resources. If not checked, many of our current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know. Fundamental changes are urgent if we are to avoid the collision our present course will bring about.

The statement listed the issues facing humanity at that time, sounded a warning, and listed actions that must be taken.

Environmental issues:

·      The Atmosphere: Stratospheric ozone depletion, air pollution, acid precipitation, increasing carbon dioxide levels.

·      Water Resources: Heedless exploitation and pollution of water resources

·      Oceans: Collapsing fisheries, discharge of toxic waste, etc.

·      Soil: Loss of soil productivity and degradation of land

·      Forests: Rapid disappearance of tropical rain forests and associated biodiversity

·      Living Species: Irreversible loss of species and genetic diversity

·      Global warming and climate change: Predictions uncertain, but the potential risks very great.

Population: Pressures resulting from unrestrained population growth put demands on the natural world that can overwhelm any efforts to achieve a sustainable future. One person in five lives in absolute poverty without enough to eat, and one in ten suffers serious malnutrition.

Warning:

We warn all humanity of what lies ahead. A great change in our stewardship of the earth and the life on it is required, if vast human misery is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be irretrievably mutilated.

What we must do:

• Bring environmentally damaging activities under control to restore and protect the integrity of the earth's systems we depend on. 
• Move away from fossil fuels to more benign, inexhaustible energy sources to cut greenhouse gas emissions and the pollution of our air and water.
• Halt deforestation, injury to and loss of agricultural land, and the loss of terrestrial and marine plant and animal species.
• Give high priority to efficient use of energy, water, and other materials, including expansion of conservation and recycling.
• Stabilize population.
• Reduce and eventually eliminate poverty.
• Ensure sexual equality, and guarantee women control over their own reproductive decisions.

Developed nations, who are the largest polluters in the world today, must act now. They must greatly reduce their overconsumption and provide aid and support to developing nations. Acting on this recognition is not altruism, but enlightened self-interest: whether industrialized or not, we all have but one lifeboat.

Developing nations must realize that environmental damage is one of the gravest threats they face, and that attempts to blunt it will be overwhelmed if their populations go unchecked. The greatest peril is to become trapped in spirals of environmental decline, poverty, and unrest, leading to social, economic, and environmental collapse.

Success in this global endeavour will require a great reduction in violence and war. Resources now devoted to the preparation and conduct of war -- amounting to over $1 trillion annually -- will be badly needed in the new tasks and should be diverted to the new challenges.

A new ethic is required - a new attitude towards discharging our responsibility for caring for ourselves and for the earth. We must recognize the earth's limited capacity and its fragility. This ethic must motivate a great movement, convincing reluctant leaders and reluctant governments and reluctant peoples themselves to effect the needed changes.

In this task, we need the help of the world community of scientists, business and industrial leaders, religious leaders and the world's peoples.

We call on all to join us in this task.

Why am I posting a statement of 1992 today? 25 years have passed since that warning was issued and very little action has been taken by the world community with regard to its recommendations. So, in November 2017, more than 15,000 scientists have issued a second warning about the state of the world. This will be covered in the next post.