In July 2020, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, released India’s first ever national forecast on the impact of global warming on the subcontinent in this century.
Some of the highlights of the report:
· Summer heat waves over India are projected to be three to four times higher by the end of the 21st century.
· Annual rainfall is very likely to increase, along with more severe cyclones and, paradoxically, more droughts.
· Between 1986 and 2015, the hottest day and coldest night have warmed 0.63°C and 0.4°C, respectively. By the end of the 21st century, these temperatures are projected to rise by approximately 4.7°C and 5.5°C, respectively.
· The frequencies of warm days and warm nights are projected to increase by 55% and 70%, respectively, relative to the reference period of 1976-2005.
· The projected rapid changes in India’s climate will place increasing stress on the country’s natural ecosystems, agricultural output, and fresh water resources
These projections, based on a climate forecasting model developed at the IITM, Pune, will be part of the next report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), expected to be ready in 2022.
Roxy Mathew Koll, scientist at IITM and associated with IPCC scientific report, said in a statement that an observed change of 0.7°C in average temperatures over India had already registered a spike in extreme weather events over the region.
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