2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

As part of the decision to adopt the Paris Agreement, the IPCC was invited to produce, in 2018, a Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This Report, released in October 2018, has the imposing title:

Global Warming of 1.5 °C: IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty

This Report is important because:

·      This is the first report to be released since the coming into force of the Paris Agreement.

·      Many countries, including India, are already feeling the extreme impact of climate change.

Major Questions Addressed in the Special Report

Why are we talking about 1.5°C?

Climate change represents an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to human societies and the planet. In recognition of this, the overwhelming majority of countries around the world adopted the Paris Agreement in December 2015, the central aim of which includes pursuing efforts to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C.

How close are we to 1.5°C?

Human–induced warming has already reached about 1°C above pre-industrial levels. If the current warming rate continues, the world would reach human–induced global warming of 1.5°C around 2040.

What are the impacts of 1.5°C and 2°C of warming?

The impacts of climate change are being felt in every inhabited continent and in the oceans. But they are not spread uniformly across the globe, and different parts of the world experience impacts differently. An average warming of 1.5°C across the whole globe raises the risk of heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, amongst many other potential impacts. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C can help reduce these risks.

What kind of pathways limit warming to 1.5°C and are we on track?

There is no definitive way to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This Special Report identifies two main conceptual pathways to illustrate different interpretations. One stabilises global temperature at, or just below, 1.5°C. Another sees global temperature temporarily exceed 1.5°C before coming back down. Countries’ pledges to reduce their emissions are currently not in line with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

What transitions could enable limiting global warming to 1.5°C?

In order to limit warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, the world would need to transform in a number of complex and connected ways. Meeting this challenge would require a rapid escalation in the current scale and pace of change, particularly in the coming decades.

Why is adaptation important in a 1.5°C warmer world?

Adaptation is the adjustment process to current or expected changes in climate and its effects. Even though climate change is a global problem, its impacts are experienced differently across the world. This means that responses are often specific to the local context, and so people in different regions are adapting in different ways. A rise in global temperature from 1°C to 1.5°C, and beyond, increases the need for adaptation.

What are the connections between sustainable development and limiting global warming to 1.5°C?

Sustainable development seeks to meet the needs of people living today without compromising the needs of future generations, while balancing social, economic and environmental considerations. The 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) include targets for eradicating poverty; ensuring health, energy and food security; reducing inequality; protecting ecosystems; pursuing sustainable cities and economies; and a goal for climate action (SDG13). Climate change affects the ability to achieve sustainable development goals and limiting warming to 1.5°C will help meet some sustainable development targets. Pursuing sustainable development will influence emissions, impacts and vulnerabilities. Responses to climate change in the form of adaptation and mitigation will also interact with sustainable development with positive effects, known as synergies, or negative effects, known as trade-offs. Responses to climate change can be planned to maximize synergies and limit trade-offs with sustainable development.

What are the pathways to achieving poverty reduction and reducing inequalities while reaching the 1.5°C world?

There are ways to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Of the pathways that exist, some simultaneously achieve sustainable development. They entail a mix of measures that lower emissions and reduce the impacts of climate change, while contributing to poverty eradication and reducing inequalities. Which pathways are possible and desirable will differ between and within regions and nations. This is due to the fact that development progress to date has been uneven and climate-related risks are unevenly distributed. Flexible governance would be needed to ensure that such pathways are inclusive, fair, and equitable to avoid poor and disadvantaged populations becoming worse off. ‘Climate-Resilient Development Pathways’ (CRDPs) offer possibilities to achieve both equitable and low-carbon futures.