IPCC releases final Synthesis Report of Sixth Assessment

On March 20, 2023, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented its final Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment of climate change.

The main messages were:

A. Current Status and Trends

A.1 Observed Warming and its Causes: Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in 2011–2020. Global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase, with unequal historical and ongoing contributions arising from unsustainable energy use, land use and land-use change, lifestyles and patterns of consumption and production across regions, between and within countries, and among individuals.

A.2 Observed Changes and Impacts: Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred. Human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. This has led to widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people. Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to current climate change are disproportionately affected.

A.3 Current Progress in Adaptation and Gaps and Challenges: Adaptation planning and implementation has progressed across all sectors and regions, with documented benefits and varying effectiveness. Despite progress, adaptation gaps exist, and will continue to grow at current rates of implementation. Hard and soft limits to adaptation have been reached in some ecosystems and regions. Maladaptation is happening in some sectors and regions. Current global financial flows for adaptation are insufficient for, and constrain implementation of, adaptation options, especially in developing countries.

A.4 Current Mitigation Progress, Gaps and Challenges: Policies and laws addressing mitigation have consistently expanded since AR5. Global GHG emissions in 2030 implied by nationally determined contributions (NDCs) announced by October 2021 make it likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century and make it harder to limit warming below 2°C. There are gaps between projected emissions from implemented policies and those from NDCs and finance flows fall short of the levels needed to meet climate goals across all sectors and regions. 

B. Future Climate Change, Risks, and Long-Term Responses

B.1 Future Climate Change: Continued greenhouse gas emissions will lead to increasing global warming, with the best estimate of reaching 1.5°C in the near term in considered scenarios and modelled pathways. Every increment of global warming will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards. Deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would lead to a discernible slowdown in global warming within around two decades, and also to discernible changes in atmospheric composition within a few years.

B.2 Climate Change Impacts and Climate-Related Risks: For any given future warming level, many climate-related risks are higher than assessed in AR5, and projected long-term impacts are up to multiple times higher than currently observed. Risks and projected adverse impacts and related losses and damages from climate change escalate with every increment of global warming. Climatic and non-climatic risks will increasingly interact, creating compound and cascading risks that are more complex and difficult to manage.

B.3 Likelihood and Risks of Unavoidable, Irreversible or Abrupt Changes: Some future changes are unavoidable and/or irreversible but can be limited by deep, rapid and sustained global greenhouse gas emissions reduction. The likelihood of abrupt and/or irreversible changes increases with higher global warming levels. Similarly, the probability of low-likelihood

outcomes associated with potentially very large adverse impacts increases with higher global warming levels.

B.4 Adaptation Options and their Limits in a Warmer World:  Adaptation options that are feasible and effective today will become constrained and less effective with increasing global warming. With increasing global warming, losses and damages will increase and additional human and natural systems will reach adaptation limits. Maladaptation can be avoided by flexible, multi-sectoral, inclusive, long-term planning and implementation of adaptation actions, with co-benefits to many sectors and systems.

B.5 Carbon Budgets and Net Zero Emissions: Limiting human-caused global warming requires net zero CO2 emissions. Cumulative carbon emissions until the time of reaching net-zero CO2 emissions and the level of greenhouse gas emission reductions this decade largely determine whether warming can be limited to 1.5°C or 2°C. Projected CO2 emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructure without additional abatement would exceed the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C.

B.6 Mitigation Pathways: All global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot, and those that limit warming to 2°C (>67%), involve rapid and deep and, in most cases, immediate greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors this decade. Global net zero CO2 emissions are reached for these pathway categories, in the early 2050s and around the early 2070s, respectively.

B.7 Overshoot: Exceeding a Warming Level and Returning: If warming exceeds a specified level such as 1.5°C, it could gradually be reduced again by achieving and sustaining net negative global CO2 emissions. This would require additional deployment of carbon dioxide removal, compared to pathways without overshoot, leading to greater feasibility and sustainability concerns. Overshoot entails adverse impacts, some irreversible, and additional risks for human and natural systems, all growing with the magnitude and duration of overshoot.

C. Responses in the Near Term

C.1 Urgency of Near-Term Integrated Climate Action: Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health. There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all. Climate resilient development integrates adaptation and mitigation to advance sustainable development for all, and is enabled by increased international cooperation including improved access to adequate financial resources, particularly for vulnerable regions, sectors and groups, and inclusive governance and coordinated policies. The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years.

C.2 The Benefits of Near-Term Action: Deep, rapid and sustained mitigation and accelerated implementation of adaptation actions in this decade would reduce projected losses and damages for humans and ecosystems, and deliver many co-benefits, especially for air quality and health. Delayed mitigation and adaptation action would lock-in high-emissions infrastructure, raise risks of stranded assets and cost-escalation, reduce feasibility, and increase losses and damages. Near-term actions involve high up-front investments and potentially disruptive changes that can be lessened by a range of enabling policies.

C.3 Mitigation and Adaptation Options across Systems: Rapid and far-reaching transitions across all sectors and systems are necessary to achieve deep and sustained emissions reductions and secure a liveable and sustainable future for all. These system transitions involve a significant upscaling of a wide portfolio of mitigation and adaptation options. Feasible, effective, and low-cost options for mitigation and adaptation are already available, with differences across systems and regions. 

C.4 Synergies and Trade-Offs with Sustainable Development:

Accelerated and equitable action in mitigating and adapting to climate change impacts is critical to sustainable development. Mitigation and adaptation actions have more synergies than trade-offs with Sustainable Development Goals. Synergies and trade-offs depend on context and scale of implementation.

C.5 Equity and Inclusion: Prioritising equity, climate justice, social justice, inclusion and just transition processes can enable adaptation and ambitious mitigation actions and climate resilient development. Adaptation outcomes are enhanced by increased support to regions and people with the highest vulnerability to climatic hazards. Integrating climate adaptation into social protection programs improves resilience. Many options are available for reducing emission-intensive consumption, including through behavioural and lifestyle changes, with co-benefits for societal well-being. 

C.6 Governance and Policies: Effective climate action is enabled by political commitment, well-aligned multilevel governance, institutional frameworks, laws, policies and strategies and enhanced access to finance and technology. Clear goals, coordination across multiple policy domains, and inclusive governance processes facilitate effective climate action. Regulatory and economic instruments can support deep emissions

reductions and climate resilience if scaled up and applied widely. Climate resilient development benefits from drawing on diverse knowledge.

C.7 Finance, Technology and International Cooperation: Finance, technology and international cooperation are critical enablers for accelerated climate action. If climate goals are to be achieved, both adaptation and mitigation financing would need to increase many-fold. There is sufficient global capital to close the global investment gaps but there are barriers to redirect capital to climate action. Enhancing technology innovation systems is key to accelerate the widespread adoption of technologies and practices. Enhancing international cooperation is possible through multiple channels.

WWF Releases 2022 Living Planet Report

 In October 2022, WWF, one of the largest conservation organizations in the world, released the Living Planet Report, a comprehensive study of trends in global biodiversity and the health of the planet. WWF’s flagship publication released every two years,

The Living Planet Report (LPI) is the world’s leading, science-based analysis on the health of our planet and the impact of human activity. It is published every two years by WWF, one of the largest conservation organizations in the world. WWF works in 100 countries.

The Living Planet Index acts as an early warning indicator by tracking trends in the abundance of mammals, fish, reptiles, birds and amphibians around the world. Such indicators help us to build up a picture of both the speed and scale of change in biodiversity around the world, and the impacts of this change.

The Living Planet Report 2022 is the 14th edition of the report and provides the scientific evidence to back what nature has been demonstrating repeatedly: unsustainable human activity is pushing the planet’s natural systems that support life on Earth to the edge.

Through multiple indicators including the Living Planet Index (LPI), provided by the Zoological Society of London (ZSL), it shows an average 69% fall in almost 32,000 wildlife populations between 1970 and 2018.

The report calls on world leaders to come together to build a more sustainable, resilient, and healthy post-COVID-19 world for people and nature.

The key messages were:

1.The global double emergency

• We are living through climate and biodiversity crises; these are not separate from each other but are two sides of the same coin.
• Land-use change is still the most important driver of biodiversity loss.
• The cascading impacts of climate change are already affecting the natural world. Unless we limit warming to 1.5°C, climate change is likely to become the dominant cause of biodiversity loss in the coming decades.

2.The speed and scale of change

• Indicators help us to build up a picture of both the speed and scale of change in biodiversity around the world, and the impacts of this change.
• The Living Planet Index acts as an early warning indicator by tracking trends in the abundance of mammals, fish, reptiles, birds and amphibians around the world.
• The 2022 global Living Planet Index shows an average 69% decrease in monitored wildlife populations between 1970 and 2018.
• Latin America shows the greatest regional decline in average population abundance (94%).
• Population trends for monitored freshwater species are also falling steeply (83%).
• New mapping analysis techniques allow us to build up a more comprehensive picture of both the speed and scale of changes in biodiversity
• and climate, and to map where nature contributes most to our lives.

3.Building a nature-positive society

• We know that the health of our planet is declining, and we know why.
• We also know that we have the knowledge and means to address climate change and biodiversity loss.
• The landmark recognition in July 2022 by the UN General Assembly of the human right to a healthy environment cements our understanding that climate breakdown, nature loss, pollution and pandemics are human
• rights crises.
• We know that transformational change – game-changing shifts – will be essential to bring theory into practice.
• There must be system-wide changes in how we produce and consume, the technology we use, and our economic and financial systems.
• Researchers are exploring new lenses to add to these models, including climate change impacts, equity and fairness.
• Linking international trade to its impacts on nature is a key part of bending the curve of biodiversity loss at scale.
• In addressing these complex, interlinked challenges there is no one-size-fits-all solution.

IEA Report: LiFE lessons from India

In February 2023, the International Energy Agency released a Report entitled "LiFE lessons from India: The benefits of advancing the Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE) initiative through the G20."

In November 2021 at the Climate Change Conference COP26, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of the Lifestyles for Environment (LiFE) initiative, which aims to promote more environmentally responsible consumption and behaviour worldwide. In today’s context of the global energy crisis and the continued challenge of climate change, LiFE is an important opportunity to accelerate clean energy transitions.

This Report looks at how India has integrated measures aligned with LiFE into its energy transition strategy, outlines the role of behavioural change and consumer choices in clean energy transitions, and provides a quantification of the emissions reduction potential of LiFE at the world level. It concludes with some reflections of the implications of LiFE for the G20.

The key findings of the Report were:

• The Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE) initiative aims to encourage the adoption of sustainable lifestyles in India and internationally to tackle the challenges of environmental degradation and climate change.
• India has integrated several policies in its energy transition strategy that are aligned with LiFE.
• India’s economy is already 10% more energy efficient than both the global and G20 average. India took less time to go from half to full electricity access than other major economies.
• Already the third largest national market globally for renewables, India has recently seen the growth of consumer-centric solutions like distributed solar PV take off, with rooftop solar growing 30-fold in less than a decade. Supportive policies and awareness campaigns in India have also driven electric passenger vehicles to a market share of almost 5% in 2022 – with sales tripling from 2021.
• India’s example shows the importance of behavioural change and consumption choices in driving energy transitions. The IEA has analysed the impact of measures like those proposed by the LiFE initiative, such as buying an EV or taking public transport, as part of comprehensive energy transition strategies.
• According to the IEA’s modelling, the adoption worldwide of the kinds of actions and measures targeted by LiFE – including behavioural changes and sustainable consumer choices – would reduce annual global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by more than 2 billion tonnes (Gt) in 2030. This is about one-fifth of the emissions reductions needed by 2030 to put the world on a pathway to net zero emissions.
• IEA estimates that around 60% of the emissions saving by LiFE measures could be directly influenced or mandated by governments. How individuals behave and choose to consume is shaped by the norms, policies, incentives and infrastructure around them. Thus, although the measures envisaged in LiFE are carried out by individuals, there is a clear role for governments to simultaneously provide a supportive policy framework.
• LiFE measures would also save consumers globally around USD 440 billion in 2030, according to the IEA’s modelling, equivalent to around 5% of all spending on fuels across the global economy that year.
• LiFE measures also help lower inequalities in energy consumption and emissions between countries. The reductions in per capita CO2 emissions in advanced economies by 2030 (relative to a ‘business-as-usual’ trajectory) are three- to four-times greater than in emerging market and developing economies.
• India’s first G20 Presidency could strengthen the LiFE initiative by anchoring it in the G20’s current framing of energy transitions and initiating processes to gather experience and best practices of policies and programmes that G20 members are already conducting.

WMO Report: Global Sea-Level Rise and Implications

In February 2023, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a report “Global Sea-Level Rise & Implications: Key facts and figures”.

The Key Messages of the Report were:

• Sea-level rise threatens several low-lying small islands and high-population coastal cities. It is a major threat for countries like Netherlands, Bangladesh, India and China, some of which comprise large coastal populations.
• Several big cities on all continents are threatened, such as Shanghai, Dhaka, Bangkok, Jakarta, Mumbai, Maputo, Lagos, London, Copenhagen, New York, Los Angeles, and Buenos Aires. It is a major economic, social and humanitarian challenge.
• Sea-level rise threatens coastal farmlands and water reserves and resilience of infrastructures as well as human lives and livelihoods. The impacts of average sea-level rise are boosted by storm surges and tidal variations, as was the situation during the landfall of hurricane Sandy in New York and Cyclone Idai in Mozambique.
• According to future estimates based on climate models and ocean-atmosphere physics, the speed of the melting of the largest global ice mass Antarctica is uncertain. There is a risk of a much higher sea-level rise due to potential intrusion of sea water under the Antarctic glaciers.
• Global mean sea-level has risen faster since 1900 than over any preceding century in at least the last 3000 years. The global ocean has warmed faster over the past century than since the end of the last deglacial transition (around 11,000 years ago). 
• Global mean sea-level increased by 0.20m between 1901 and 2018. Human influence was very likely the main driver of this increase since at least 1971. 
• Heating of the climate system has caused global mean sea-level rise through ice loss on land, melting of glaciers and ice sheets and thermal expansion from ocean warming. Thermal expansion explained 50% of sea level rise during 1971–2018, while ice loss from glaciers contributed 22%, ice sheets 20% and changes in land-water storage 8%. The rate of ice-sheet loss increased by a factor of four between 1992–1999 and 2010–2019. Together, ice-sheet and glacier mass loss were the dominant contributors to global mean sea level rise during 2006–2018. 
• It is virtually certain that global mean sea-level will continue to rise over the 21st century. Over the next 2000 years, global mean sea-level will rise by about 2 to 3 m if warming is limited to 1.5°C, 2 to 6 m if limited to 2°C and 19 to 22 m with 5°C of warming, and it will continue to rise over subsequent millennia. 
• The likelihood and impacts of abrupt and/or irreversible changes increase with further global warming. At sustained warming levels between 2-3 C, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets will be almost completely and irreversibly lost over multiple millennia causing potentially multi-meter sea-level rise. The mass loss is higher with higher warming rates. In case of very high greenhouse gas emissions (total failure of mitigation) there is a risk of sea-level rise by of 2 m by 2100 and even 15 m by 2300. 
• Continued sea-level rise will increase risks to food security in vulnerable regions between 1.5 C and 2 C Global warming level. 
• Sea-level rise poses a distinctive and severe adaptation challenge as it implies dealing with slow onset changes and increased frequency and magnitude of extreme sea-level events which will escalate in the coming decades. 
• There are significant specific impacts and challenges to those populations faced with sea-level rise living in coastal urban areas in least developed and low-middle income countries.

UN Resolution on the right to a healthy environment and UNEP Note

On 28 July 2022, the UN General Assembly adopted a landmark resolution recognizing the human right to a healthy environment. The resolution, which followed the recognition of the right by the Human Rights Council (HRC) in October 2021 was an unprecedented decision, adopted with the unparalleled support  of member countries. The UN GA resolution sends a powerful message that there is widespread, worldwide support for this right – which is already recognized in 156 countries at the national and regional levels.

The UN GA resolution on the right to a healthy environment was the result of States’ commitment on environmental issues, many years of advocacy and collaboration by national human rights institutions, civil society organizations, Indigenous Peoples, children and young people, and business actors, among others, and supported by UN entities. Putting rights at the centre of addressing the triple planetary crisis – climate change, biodiversity and nature loss, and pollution – is more important now than ever and an imperative for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

As a follow up on the UN GA Resolution, an Information Note was jointly released in January 2023 by UNEP, UNDP, and the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). It aims to improve understanding of the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment and why it matters. The note traces the origins of this right, describes its key elements and highlights the expected benefits of its recognition by the UN GA. Importantly, the note outlines the roles of different stakeholders in advancing realization of the right. 

 

From the Introduction to the Note:
All people have the right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment. As human rights and the environment are interdependent, a clean, healthy and sustainable environment is necessary for the full enjoyment of a wide range of human rights, such as the rights to life, health, food, water and sanitation and development, among others. At the same time, the enjoyment of all human rights, including the rights to information, participation and access to justice, is of great importance to the protection of the environment.

Despite myriad international agreements, as well as national laws and policies, the condition of our environment keeps deteriorating. The global crises we currently face, including climate change, the loss of biodiversity, and pollution, represent some of the biggest threats to humanity, severely affecting the exercise and enjoyment of human rights. Some examples include:

• Rising global temperatures are increasing water shortages and land degradation, including soil erosion, vegetation loss, wildfires, and  permafrost, affecting people’s rights to life, health, food, water and adequate standard of living, among other rights.
• Air pollution is considered one of the biggest environmental threats to health resulting in an estimated seven million premature deaths every year in violation of the rights to health and life.
• Over 38 million people were newly displaced by climate-related disasters in 2021. This directly affects the enjoyment of the rights to adequate housing, education, health and security, among others.
• Environmental degradation disproportionately impacts persons, groups and peoples already in vulnerable situations. The impacts of the triple planetary crisis augment the structural and other intersecting barriers they face. Some examples of those who have often been and may continue to be disproportionately affected by the triple planetary crisis include:

- Women and girls, as environmental degradation reinforces pre-existing gender inequalities and discrimination on issues such as gender-based violence, and rights of access and tenure over land and natural resources.

- Children who, because of inter alia their less-developed physiology and immune systems, experience the effects of environmental degradation more intensely due to food and water shortages, and transmission of diseases.

- Indigenous Peoples who often face grave and even life-threatening risks for defending the traditional lands, resources and territories upon which their communities depend for survival, livelihoods and religious and customary practices.

Advancing a rights-based approach to environmental protection
A human rights-based approach (HRBA) to environmental protection is a critical tool for empowering those impacted by environmental activities and enhancing accountability for those making decisions and undertaking environmental activities. The HRBA integrates all human rights, including the right to a healthy environment and its substantive and procedural elements mentioned above as well as human rights principles such as inclusivity and universality, equality and non-discrimination, and accountability.

The HRBA identifies and strengthens the relationship between ‘duty bearers’ with human rights obligations and ‘rights holders’ who are empowered to hold duty bearers to account and to enjoy access to effective remedies for violations. 

Rights-based approaches to environmental decision-making and policy development can provide the following benefits, among others:
- Establishment of consistent global environmental human rights standards to facilitate interventions at the appropriate levels (local, national, regional and international).
- Strengthened capacities of States to meet their human rights and  environmental obligations in a coherent manner, , including their duty to ensure that private entities/non-State actor respect human rights.
- Enhanced accountability by enabling people to uphold their rights and hold States and other stakeholders to account.
- More effective, legitimate and sustainable outcomes.

National Green Hydrogen Mission Approved

In January 2023, the Union Cabinet approved the setting up of a National Green Hydrogen Mission. 

The overarching objective of the Mission is to make India the Global Hub for production, usage and export of Green Hydrogen and its derivatives. This will contribute to India’s aim to become Aatmanirbhar (self-reliant) through clean energy and serve as an inspiration for the global Clean Energy Transition. The Mission will lead to significant decarbonisation of the economy, reduced dependence on fossil fuel imports, and enable India to assume technology and market leadership in Green Hydrogen.

To achieve these objectives, the Mission will build capabilities to produce at least 5 Million Metric Tonne (MMT) of Green Hydrogen per annum by 2030, with a potential to reach 10 MMT per annum with growth of export markets. The Mission will support replacement of fossil fuels and fossil fuel based feedstocks with renewable fuels and feedstocks based on Green Hydrogen. This will include replacement of Hydrogen produced from fossil fuel sources with Green Hydrogen in ammonia production and petroleum refining, blending Green Hydrogen in City Gas Distribution systems, production of steel with Green Hydrogen, and use of Green Hydrogen-derived synthetic fuels (including Green Ammonia, Green Methanol, etc.) to replace fossil fuels in various sectors including mobility, shipping, and aviation. The Mission also aims to make India a leader in technology and manufacturing of electrolysers and other enabling technologies for Green Hydrogen.

Considering the nascent status of the sector and the rapidly evolving profile of the industry, the mission is proposed to be implemented in a phased manner, focusing initially on deployment of Green Hydrogen in sectors that are already using hydrogen, and evolving an ecosystem for R&D, regulations and pilot projects. The later phase of the Mission will build on these foundational activities and undertake Green Hydrogen initiatives in new sectors of the economy. 

Main features of the Mission:

• The initial outlay for the Mission will be Rs.19,744 crore, including an outlay of Rs.17,490 crore for the SIGHT programme, Rs.1,466 crore for pilot projects, Rs.400 crore for R&D, and Rs. 388 crore towards other Mission components. MNRE will formulate the scheme guidelines for implementation of the respective components. 
• The Mission will result in the following likely outcomes by 2030: 
• Development of green hydrogen production capacity of at least 5 MMT (Million Metric Tonne) per annum with an associated renewable energy capacity addition of about 125 GW in the country; 
• Over Rs. Eight lakh crore in total investments; 
• Creation of over Six lakh jobs; 
• Cumulative reduction in fossil fuel imports over Rs. One lakh crore; 
• Abatement of nearly 50 MMT of annual greenhouse gas emissions. 
• The Mission will have wide ranging benefits:
• Creation of export opportunities for Green Hydrogen and its derivatives; 
• Decarbonisation of industrial, mobility and energy sectors; 
• Reduction in dependence on imported fossil fuels and feedstock; 
• Development of indigenous manufacturing capabilities; 
• Creation of employment opportunities; and 
• Development of cutting-edge technologies.
• India’s Green Hydrogen production capacity is likely to reach at least 5 MMT per annum, with an associated renewable energy capacity addition of about 125 GW. 
• The targets by 2030 are likely to bring in over Rs. 8 lakh crore investments and create over 6 lakh jobs. 
• Nearly 50 MMT per annum of CO2 emissions are expected to be averted by 2030. 

Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window

UNEP released its Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window on October 27, 2022. As climate impacts intensify, the Report finds that the world is still falling short of the Paris climate goals, with no credible pathway to 1.5°C in place. Only an urgent system-wide transformation can avoid an accelerating climate disaster. The report looks at how to deliver this transformation, through action in the electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems. 

The key messages were:

Despite a call for strengthened Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2030, progress since COP26 in Glasgow has been woefully inadequate. 

• NDCs submitted since COP26 take only 0.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas emissions (GtCO2e), less than one per cent, off projected global emissions in 2030. 

• Looking at all new and updated NDCs submitted between 1 January 2020 and 23 September 2022, the count is 166 nations, representing 91 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions, up from 152 parties as of COP26. 

• Most G20 members have just started implementing efforts to meet their new targets; collectively, the G20 is expected to fall short of its 2030 promises without strengthened action. 

This lack of progress leaves the world on a path towards a temperature rise far above the Paris Agreement goal of well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C. 

• Unconditional NDCs are estimated to give a 66 per cent chance of limiting global warming to about 2.6°C by the end of the century. For conditional NDCs, this goes down to 2.4°C. 

• Policies currently in place, without further strengthening, suggest a 2.8°C hike. 

• Implementation of all NDCs plus net-zero commitments made by an increasing number of countries point to a 1.8°C increase. However, this scenario is not credible, based on the discrepancy between current emissions, near-term NDC targets and long-term net-zero targets. 

To get on track to meet the Paris Agreement goal, the world needs to reduce greenhouse gases by unprecedented levels over the next eight years. 

• Unconditional and conditional NDCs are estimated to reduce global emissions in 2030 by 5 and 10 per cent respectively, compared with emissions based on policies currently in place. 

• To get on a least-cost pathway to limiting global warming to 2°C and 1.5°C, these percentages must reach 30 per cent and 45 per cent respectively. 

Emissions must continue to decline rapidly after 2030 to avoid exhausting the remaining atmospheric carbon budget. Such massive cuts require a large-scale, rapid and systemic transformation across the globe.

• The report explores the required actions in the electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems that would back these changes.

• Even if the transformation fails to fully bridge the 2030 emissions gap, every fraction of a degree matters. Launching the transformation is necessary to move towards a carbon-neutral future that will allow us to limit global warming and deliver other social and environmental benefits, like clean air, green jobs and universal energy access.

The transformation towards zero greenhouse gas emissions in electricity supply, industry, transportation and buildings is underway but needs to move much faster.

• Electricity supply is most advanced, as the costs of renewable electricity for solar and wind have fallen, but obstacles exist – including ensuring a just transition and universal energy access.

• For buildings, currently available technologies need to be fully applied. For industry and transport, zero-emission technology needs to be further developed and deployed.

• The portfolio of the key actions to advance the transformation include:

o avoiding lock in of new fossil fuel-intensive infrastructure,

o further advancing zero-carbon technologies, market structures and planning for a just transformation,

o applying zero-emission technology and behavioural changes to sustain reductions to reach zero emissions.

Food systems, which account for one third of all emissions, can be reformed to deliver rapid and lasting cuts.

• Focus areas for food systems include demand-side dietary changes (including tackling food waste), protection of natural ecosystems, improvements in food production at the farm level and decarbonization of food supply chains.

• Transformations in the four areas can reduce 2050 food systems emissions to around a third of current levels; as opposed to emissions almost doubling if current practices remain in place.

• Governments can facilitate transformation by reforming subsidies and tax schemes. The private sector can reduce food loss and waste, use renewable energy and develop novel foods that cut down carbon emissions. Individual citizens can change their lifestyles to consume food for environmental sustainability and carbon reduction.

The financial system must overcome internal and external constraints to become a critical enabler of transformation across all sectors.

• A global transformation to a low-carbon economy is expected to require investments of at least USD 4-6 trillion a year. This is a relatively small (1.5-2 per cent) share of total financial assets managed, but significant (20-28 per cent) in terms of additional annual resources needed.

• Delivering such funding will require a transformation of the financial system and its structures and processes, engaging governments, central banks, commercial banks, institutional investors and other financial actors.

• The six approaches to financial sector reform, which must be carried out in an integrated manner, are:

o Make financial markets more efficient, including through taxonomies and transparency.

o Introduce carbon pricing, such as taxes or cap-and-trade systems. 

o Nudge financial behaviour, through public policy interventions, taxes, spending and regulations. 

o Create markets for low-carbon technology, through shifting financial flows, stimulating innovation and helping to set standards. 

o Mobilize central banks: central banks are increasingly addressing the climate crisis, but more concrete action on regulations is urgently needed. 

o Set up climate “clubs” of cooperating countries, cross-border finance initiatives and just transformation partnerships, which can alter policy norms and change the course of finance through credible financial commitment devices, such as sovereign guarantees.