Bracing for Climate Impact: Renewables as a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

In August 2021, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) released a report “Bracing for Climate Impact: Renewables as a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy.”

The impacts of climate change are being seen with increasing frequency and intensity around the world. Climate change mitigation (action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions) remains vital but is just one of the two main pillars of climate change response. The critical importance of the second pillar, adaptation (action to adjust to and protect against the impacts of climate change), has gained significant recognition in recent years, and an increasing flow of finance to adaptation activities is being seen at the international and national levels. Many climate adaptation strategies require considerable energy use, yet the role of reliable, affordable and modern renewable energy services in climate adaptation is not widely acknowledged in policy making or practice.

This report discusses the benefits of renewables-based adaptation and illustrates the importance of renewable energy within an integrated mitigation-adaptation approach to climate action. The key messages of the three main areas explored in the report are:

1. Strategic role of renewable energy in climate change

adaptation and in mitigation-adaptation synergies

• Renewable energy can significantly contribute to climate change adaptation and create opportunities for innovative practices to address climate change. Renewables-based adaptation solutions promote mitigation and reinforce adaptation efforts synchronously across many sectors. As a versatile energy resource, renewables can serve a broad range of adaptation needs and provide benefits that other resources cannot deliver. 
• Renewables allow implementation of energy-intensive adaptation solutions – such as air conditioning, desalination and irrigation – with net-zero emissions. 
• Distributed renewable energy solutions (technologies that provide power outside a central grid) can create a resilient energy system, and therefore support vital adaptation measures, for the most vulnerable communities. 
• Renewables can also deliver non-energy services that contribute to climate adaptation. This multifunctionality enables renewable energy technologies to provide additional forms of resilience to climate change. For instance, the multipurpose nature of hydropower and bioenergy technologies is well recognised, and their non-energy services have been used in real adaptation projects, such as solar shading (e.g. honey production under solar panels to improve food security) to reduce evaporation on agricultural land; use of byproducts from biogas facilities to make organic fertiliser; and water harvesting from hydropower dams. 

2. Planning and financing for renewables-based adaptation

• Many countries recognise renewable energy as a synergistic mitigation-adaptation measure and incorporate it into their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and long-term development strategies under the Paris Agreement. Of the 190 countries that had submitted NDCs by the end of 2020, 64 (34%) had incorporated renewable energy into the adaptation component. 
• Although most of those countries describe renewable energy as an adaptation measure for the energy sector (diversifying energy mix and increasing the resilience of the sector), its use for adaptation in other sectors, such as water, food and agriculture, is also frequently mentioned. 
• Climate finance provided and mobilised for adaptation activities has significantly increased, rising to USD 16.8 billion in 2018 and accounting for 21% of total climate finance, up from 17% in 2016. However, a considerable amount of adaptation finance remains untapped, and renewables-based adaptation could be a prime candidate for these funding opportunities. For instance, the Green Climate Fund has been mandated since 2014 to deliver half its portfolio to adaptation projects, and in 2019 the World Bank announced it would boost its adaptation financing to USD 50 billion by 2025, ensuring that over half its climate finance will go to adaptation. Projects involving renewable energy for adaptation are gaining ground: they already compose around 42% and 60% of projects for adaptation in the financial aid of the Adaptation Fund and the Green Climate Fund, respectively.

3. The way forward for renewables-based climate adaptation

solutions

• A holistic approach needs to be taken to integrate renewable energy into the climate change adaptation process at all levels of upstream and downstream decision making. This integrated and holistic approach would help identify the contribution of renewable energy to adaptation, promote synergies with mitigation and sustainable development, and maximise the overall benefits of renewable energy while minimising trade-offs.
• A clear framework provides a strong basis for climate adaptation; it is therefore critical that countries establish a clear climate rationale, based on the best available science, through which renewable energy technologies can be embedded in adaptation policies, programmes and projects. A cross-sectoral approach is essential, and a range of stakeholders should be engaged from the early stage to identify synergies, avoid conflict, decrease implementation costs, and significantly improve project success.
• Renewables may contribute more than one adaptation, mitigation or sustainable development objective, while producing greater impact with fewer resources.
• Renewable energy options must be integrated into short- and mid- to long-term decision-making and planning processes to mainstream, structure and scale up renewable energy adaptation projects. This integration can be best realised by (i) creating an enabling environment for private investors to catalyse private financing and supplement public spending, (ii) ensuring the engagement of finance ministries in adaptation planning, and (iii) engaging international climate finance.

As climate risks keep changing with time, and multiple sectors interact with one another, projects should include continually evolving processes for monitoring, learning and managing changes. Good practice-based policy, monitoring and evaluation will generate lessons learnt and present practical solutions for clean energy deployment in different sectors.

IPCC WG1 Sixth Assessment Report: Code Red for Humanity

In early August 2021, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the Working Group I report, Climate Change 2021: the Physical Science Basis. This was the first installment of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which will be completed in 2022. The assessment is based on improved data on historical warming, as well as progress in scientific understanding of the response of the climate system to human-caused emissions.

Key messages of the Report

• Human activities affect all major climate system components, with some responding over decades and others over centuries.
• The evidence is clear that carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the main driver of climate change, even as other greenhouse gases and air pollutants also affect the climate.
• Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming since 1850-1900. Averaged over the next 20 years, global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C of warming. 
• In the coming decades climate changes will increase in all regions. 
• For 1.5°C of global warming, there will be increasing heat waves, longer warm seasons and shorter cold seasons. At 2°C of global warming, heat extremes would more often reach critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and health. 
• Climate change is bringing multiple different changes in different regions – which will all increase with further warming. These include changes to wetness and dryness, to winds, snow and ice, coastal areas and oceans. For example:

• Climate change is intensifying the water cycle. This brings more intense rainfall and associated flooding, as well as more intense drought in many regions.
• Climate change is affecting rainfall patterns. In high latitudes, precipitation is likely to increase, while it is projected to decrease over large parts of the subtropics. Changes to monsoon precipitation are expected, which will vary by region.
• Coastal areas will see continued sea level rise throughout the 21st century, contributing to more frequent and severe coastal flooding in low-lying areas and coastal erosion. Extreme sea level events that previously occurred once in 100 years could happen every year by the end of this century.
• Further warming will amplify permafrost thawing, and the loss of seasonal snow cover, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and loss of summer Arctic sea ice.
• Changes to the ocean, including warming, more frequent marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and reduced oxygen levels have been clearly linked to human influence. These changes affect both ocean ecosystems and the people that rely on them, and they will continue throughout at least the rest of this century.
• For cities, some aspects of climate change may be amplified, including heat (since urban areas are usually warmer than their surroundings), flooding from heavy precipitation events and sea level rise in coastal cities.
• Many of the changes observed in the climate are unprecedented in thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of years and some of the changes already set in motion—such as continued sea level rise—are irreversible over hundreds to thousands of years.
• Unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming close to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach. However, strong and sustained reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases would limit climate change. While benefits for air quality would come quickly it could take 20-30 years to see global temperatures stabilize.

For the first time, the Sixth Assessment Report provides a more detailed regional assessment of climate change, including a focus on useful information that can inform risk assessment, adaptation, and other decision-making, and a new framework that helps translate physical changes in the climate – heat, cold, rain, drought, snow, wind, coastal flooding and more – into what they mean for society and ecosystems.

The UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, “The Working Group's report is nothing less than a code red for humanity. The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable…. The internationally agreed threshold of 1.5°C is perilously close.  We are at imminent risk of hitting 1.5°C in the near term.  The only way to prevent exceeding this threshold is by urgently stepping up our efforts and pursuing the most ambitious path.”

Leaked IPCC draft report warns of accelerating climate devastation

In June 2021, a 4000-page draft report of the IPCC was leaked to the press. It is a part of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report to be published in stages from late 2021. The document warns of sweeping impacts on weather events, food, ecosystems, and disease—changes expected even if global temperature rise is kept under the Paris climate agreement's second threshold of 2°C. It also calls for systems-wide changes to avert a worst-case climate scenario.

The key messages of the leaked report were:

• With 1.1 deg C of warming clocked so far, the climate is already changing. 
• Global warming will trigger tipping points in Earth’s natural systems, which will lead to widespread and possibly irrevocable disaster, unless action is taken urgently.
• Tipping points are triggered when temperatures reach a certain level, whereby one impact rapidly leads to a series of cascading events with vast repercussions. The draft details at least 12 potential tipping points. Some examples are:
• As rising temperatures lead to the melting of Arctic permafrost, the unfreezing soil releases methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that in turn causes more heating.
• The melting of polar ice sheets, which once under way may be almost impossible to reverse even if carbon emissions are rapidly reduced, and which would raise sea levels catastrophically over many decades.
• The possibility of the Amazon rainforest switching suddenly to savannah, which scientists have said could come quickly and with relatively small temperature rises.
• The impacts are likely to be much closer than most people realise and will fundamentally reshape life in the coming decades even if greenhouse gas emissions are brought under some control.

• Tens of millions more people are likely to face chronic hunger by 2050, and 130 million more could experience extreme poverty within a decade if inequality is allowed to deepen.
• In 2050, coastal cities on the “front line” of the climate crisis will see hundreds of millions of people at risk from floods and increasingly frequent storm surges made more deadly by rising seas.
• Some 350 million more people living in urban areas will be exposed to water scarcity from severe droughts at 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming – 410 million at two degrees Celsius.
• That extra half-a-degree will also mean 420 million more people exposed to extreme and potentially lethal heatwaves.

• Species extinction, more widespread disease, unliveable heat, ecosystem collapse, cities menaced by rising seas – these and other devastating climate effects are accelerating and are bound to become painfully obvious before a child born today turns 30.
• Current levels of adaptation will be inadequate to respond to future climate risks. We need transformational change operating on processes and behaviours at all levels: individual, communities, business, institutions and governments. We must redefine our way of life and consumption.
• The worst is yet to come, affecting our children’s and grandchildren’s lives much more than our own. Life on Earth can recover from a drastic climate shift by evolving into new species and creating new ecosystems … humans cannot.

PM Modi’s Address at the UN High-level Dialogue on Desertification, Land Degradation and Drought

On June 14, 2021, the UN General Assembly held a High-level Dialogue on Desertification, Land Degradation and Drought. Indian PM Narendra Modi spoke at the meeting in his capacity as the President of UNCCD COP 14, which was held in New Delhi in 2019. The key messages of his speech are given below:

• Land is the fundamental building block for supporting all lives and livelihoods and all of us understand that the web of life functions as an interconnected system.
• Sadly, land degradation affects over two-thirds of the world today. If left unchecked it will erode the very foundations of our societies, economies, food security, health, safety and quality of life. Therefore we have to reduce the tremendous pressure on land and its resources. Clearly a lot of work lies ahead of us. But we can do it. We can do it together.
• In India we have always given importance to land and considered the sacred Earth as our mother. India has taken the lead to highlight land degradation issues at international forums. The Delhi Declaration of 2019 called for better access and stewardship over land, and emphasised gender-sensitive transformative projects.
• In India, over the last 10 years, around 3 million ha of forest cover has been added. This has enhanced the combined forest cover to almost one fourth of the country's total area. We are on track to achieve our national commitment of Land Degradation Neutrality. We are also working towards restoring 26 million ha of degraded land by 2030. This would contribute to India's commitment to achieve an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
• We believe that restoration of land will start a virtuous cycle of good soil health, increased land productivity, food security and improved livelihoods. In many parts of India we have taken up some novel approaches. To give you just one example: The Banni region in Rann of Kutch in Gujarat suffers from highly degraded land and receives very little rainfall. In that region land restoration is done by developing grasslands which helps in achieving land degradation neutrality. It also supports pastoral activities and livelihood by promoting animal husbandry. In the same spirit we need to devise effective strategies for land restoration while promoting indigenous techniques.
• Land degradation poses a special challenge to the developing world. In the spirit of South-South cooperation, India is assisting fellow developing countries to develop land restoration strategies. A Centre of Excellence is being set up in India to promote a scientific approach towards land degradation issues.
• It is mankind's collective responsibility to reverse the damage to land caused by human activity. It is our sacred duty to leave a healthy planet for our future generations. 

New climate predictions increase likelihood of temporarily reaching 1.5 °C in next 5 years

In late May 2021, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, produced by the UK Met Office, the WMO lead centre for such predictions.

Recall that the WMO’s report on the State of the Global Climate 2020, released in April, said that in 2020 – one of the three warmest years on record – the global average temperature was 1.2 °C above the pre-industrial baseline. That report highlighted the acceleration in climate change indicators like rising sea levels, melting sea ice, and extreme weather, as well as worsening impacts on socio-economic development.

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update confirms that trend. The key messages of the Update were:

• There is about a 40% chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level in at least one of the next five years – and these odds are increasing with time. 
• There is a 90% likelihood of at least one year between 2021-2025 becoming the warmest on record, which would dislodge 2016 from the top ranking

• Annual mean global (land and sea) mean near-surface temperature is likely to be at least 1°C warmer than preindustrial levels (defined as the 1850-1900 average) in each of the coming 5 years and is very likely to be within the range 0.9 – 1.8°C.
• It is very unlikely (10%) that the 5 year mean annual global near-surface temperature for 2021-2025 will be 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels.
• Over 2021-2025, almost all regions, except parts of the southern oceans and the North Atlantic are likely to be warmer than the recent past (defined as the 1981-2010 average).
• Over 2021-2025, high latitude regions and the Sahel are likely to be wetter than the recent past.
• Over 2021-2025 there is an increased chance of more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic compared to the recent past.
• In 2021, large land areas in the Northern Hemisphere are likely to be over 0.8°C warmer than the recent past.
• In 2021, the Arctic (north of 60°N) is likely to have warmed by more than twice as much as the global mean compared to the recent past.
• In 2021, southwestern North America is likely to be drier than the recent past whereas the Sahel region and Australia are likely to be wetter.

Prof. Petteri Taalas, WMO Secretary-General, had this to say about the Update:

“These are more than just statistics. Increasing temperatures mean more melting ice, higher sea levels, more heatwaves and other extreme weather, and greater impacts on food security, health, the environment and sustainable development. This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably and inexorably closer to the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. It is yet another wakeup call that the world needs to fast-track commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality.”

“The Update also underlines the need for climate adaptation. Only half of 193 WMO Members have state of the art early warning services. Countries should continue to develop the services that will be needed to support adaptation in climate-sensitive sectors – such as health, water, agriculture and renewable energy – and promote early warning systems that reduce the adverse impacts of extreme events. Besides limitations in early warning services we are having severe gaps in weather observations especially in Africa and island states. This has a major negative impact on the accuracy if the early warnings in those areas and globally. We need to invest in the basic networks as well.”

The Paris Agreement seeks to keep global temperature rise this century well below 2°C degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C. National commitments to cut emissions, known as nationally determined contributions, currently fall far short of what is needed to achieve this target.

The year 2021, and the crucial climate change negotiations, COP26, in November, have been widely described as a “make-or-break” chance to prevent climate change spiralling ever more out of control.

NITI Aayog releases SDG India Index and Dashboard 2020-21

On June 3, 2021, NITI Aayog released the report “SDG India Index and Dashboard 2020-21”. NITI Aayog had developed the framework of such an Index back in 2018, to capture the progress made by our States and Union Territories. It has since become the primary tool to monitor the progress and achievements towards realising the 2030 Agenda. The Index, published annually since then, has become instrumental in bringing the SDGs on the table for policy dialogue, formulation and implementation among governments and civil society, while instilling a competitive spirit. 

For the 2021 Index, the composite score for each State/UT was computed by aggregating their performance across the goals, by taking the arithmetic mean of individual goal scores. The composite score ranges from 0 to 100 and denotes the overall achievement of the State/UT in achieving the targets under the Goals. A score of 100 implies that the State/UT has achieved the targets set for 2030; a score of 0 implies that the particular State/UT is at the bottom of the table.

The main results in the 2021 Index were:

• The SDG India Index 3.0 score for the States ranges between 52 and 75; for the UTs it belongs to the 62 to 79 band. This presents a notable improvement from 2019-20, when the scores varied between 50 and 70 for the States and 59 and 70 for the UTs.
• Kerala retained its rank as the top State with a score of 75. Chandigarh too maintained its top spot among the UTs with a score of 79. 
• Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh took the second spot while Goa, Uttarakhand, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh shared the fourth spot on the table.
• The composite score for India improved, from 60 in 2019-20 to 66 in 2020-21. This indicates that the country overall has progressed forward in its journey towards achieving the SDGs. Nine Goals drive the positive push – 3 (good health and well-being), 6 (clean water and sanitation), 7 (affordable and clean energy), 10 (reduced inequalities), 11 (sustainable cities and communities), 12 (responsible consumption and production), 13 (climate action), 15 (life on land), and 16 (peace, justice, and strong institutions), where India has scored between 65 and 99.
• Two goals - 2 (zero hunger) and 5 (gender equality) - demand special attention, as the overall country score is below 50. However, 9 States in Goal 2 and 12 States in Goal 5 moved out of the Aspirant category this year as compared to 2019-20.
• In the other five goals (excluding 14 - life below water, which applies only to 9 coastal States, and 17 - partnerships for the goals, which is qualitatively analysed), the overall score lies between 50 and 64, including both, indicating the scope for significant improvement in the coming years.
• While in 2019-20, 10 States/UTs belonged to the category of Front Runners (score in the range 65-99, including both), 12 more States/UTs find themselves in this category in 2020-21. Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Mizoram, Punjab, Haryana and Tripura graduated to the category of Front Runners (scores between 65 and 99, including both).
• Goal 6 has the highest number of Front Runners with 25 States in this category while Goals 5 and 9 have the highest Aspirants with 14 States each.
• In SDG 3, SDG 10, SDG 11 and SDG 12, the country score has moved from the Performer category to the Front Runner category. Among them, Goal 11 has seen the biggest movement from 53 in 2019-20 to 79 in 2020-21.
• All States have improved their score within a range of 1 to 12 points. Mizoram, Haryana, and Uttarakhand are the top gainers in 2020-21, in terms of improvement in score from 2019, with an increase of 12, 10 and 8 points, respectively. 

The Ken-Betwa Project: Huge outlay, questionable benefits, and high social and environmental costs.

On March 22, 2021, PM Narendra Modi presided over the signing of a memorandum of agreement between the Chief Ministers of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh that will launch the Ken-Betwa River-Linking Project. This project is part of the years-old national river linking scheme, which proposes to connect 14 Himalayan and 16 peninsular rivers with 30 canals and 3000 reservoirs in order to irrigate 87 million ha of land.

Under the Ken-Betwa Project, water from the Ken river will be transferred to the Betwa river. Both the rivers are tributaries of river Yamuna, but Ken is supposed to have excess water, which would be fed to Betwa through dams, tunnels, canals, and barrages. 

The project is located in Bundelkhand, a drought-prone region, which spreads across 13 districts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. The Union Jal Shakti Ministry claims that the project would provide annual irrigation of 10.62 lakh ha, supply drinking water to about 62 lakh people, generate 103 MW of hydropower, facilitate groundwater recharge, and reduce the occurrence of floods.

The project cost estimate is Rs.35,000 crore at 2017-18 prices, with the Centre contributing 90% of it. It will take eight years for completion.

The Ken-Betwa Project was first proposed in the 1980s, later the Vajpayee government took it up seriously, and more recently, the former Union Water Resources Minister Uma Bharti has been a great supporter. 

The environmental and social costs of the project will be huge:

• 12,500 ha of land will be submerged by the project, of which more than 9000 ha are categorised as forest land. 
• The submergence area will include an important section of the Panna Tiger Reserve. (This Reserve has been commended for the successful improvement of tiger and vulture populations.)
• 23 lakh trees with a girth of 20 cm or more will be cut down.. 
• Many wildlife species will be affected including tigers, endangered vultures, mahseer fish, and gharials in the Ken Gharial Sanctuary.
• Ten villages, including Daudhan, are expected to be submerged, displacing over 10,000 people.

The project has been pending for many years since it could not get all the required environmental clearances:

• It must get clearance from the Central Empowered Committee of the Supreme Court, which had raised concerns about the project. 
• The National Water Development Agency (NWDA) applied for forest clearance in 2015, but the Stage I forest clearance accorded in May 2017 stipulates several conditions that would imply a fundamental restructuring of the project. The conditions include that the proposed 78 MW power house shall not be constructed in the forest area and that no building material is to be taken from the forest, among others.

Environmentalists and local groups also question the supposed benefits of the project:

• The claims of Ken having surplus water may be unrealistic as the river is not perennial. Sometimes it slows to a trickle. 
• The Ken River flows 60-70 feet lower than the Betwa and at least 30% of the 103 MW power generated will be used for pumping the water up. 

In spite of these issues, the governments concerned seem to be going ahead with the project.

(This post is based on several news reports, including those by Himanshu Thakkar and Sunny Sebastian in 'The Hindu')