Leaked IPCC draft report warns of accelerating climate devastation

In June 2021, a 4000-page draft report of the IPCC was leaked to the press. It is a part of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report to be published in stages from late 2021. The document warns of sweeping impacts on weather events, food, ecosystems, and disease—changes expected even if global temperature rise is kept under the Paris climate agreement's second threshold of 2°C. It also calls for systems-wide changes to avert a worst-case climate scenario.

The key messages of the leaked report were:

• With 1.1 deg C of warming clocked so far, the climate is already changing. 
• Global warming will trigger tipping points in Earth’s natural systems, which will lead to widespread and possibly irrevocable disaster, unless action is taken urgently.
• Tipping points are triggered when temperatures reach a certain level, whereby one impact rapidly leads to a series of cascading events with vast repercussions. The draft details at least 12 potential tipping points. Some examples are:
• As rising temperatures lead to the melting of Arctic permafrost, the unfreezing soil releases methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that in turn causes more heating.
• The melting of polar ice sheets, which once under way may be almost impossible to reverse even if carbon emissions are rapidly reduced, and which would raise sea levels catastrophically over many decades.
• The possibility of the Amazon rainforest switching suddenly to savannah, which scientists have said could come quickly and with relatively small temperature rises.
• The impacts are likely to be much closer than most people realise and will fundamentally reshape life in the coming decades even if greenhouse gas emissions are brought under some control.

• Tens of millions more people are likely to face chronic hunger by 2050, and 130 million more could experience extreme poverty within a decade if inequality is allowed to deepen.
• In 2050, coastal cities on the “front line” of the climate crisis will see hundreds of millions of people at risk from floods and increasingly frequent storm surges made more deadly by rising seas.
• Some 350 million more people living in urban areas will be exposed to water scarcity from severe droughts at 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming – 410 million at two degrees Celsius.
• That extra half-a-degree will also mean 420 million more people exposed to extreme and potentially lethal heatwaves.

• Species extinction, more widespread disease, unliveable heat, ecosystem collapse, cities menaced by rising seas – these and other devastating climate effects are accelerating and are bound to become painfully obvious before a child born today turns 30.
• Current levels of adaptation will be inadequate to respond to future climate risks. We need transformational change operating on processes and behaviours at all levels: individual, communities, business, institutions and governments. We must redefine our way of life and consumption.
• The worst is yet to come, affecting our children’s and grandchildren’s lives much more than our own. Life on Earth can recover from a drastic climate shift by evolving into new species and creating new ecosystems … humans cannot.

PM Modi’s Address at the UN High-level Dialogue on Desertification, Land Degradation and Drought

On June 14, 2021, the UN General Assembly held a High-level Dialogue on Desertification, Land Degradation and Drought. Indian PM Narendra Modi spoke at the meeting in his capacity as the President of UNCCD COP 14, which was held in New Delhi in 2019. The key messages of his speech are given below:

• Land is the fundamental building block for supporting all lives and livelihoods and all of us understand that the web of life functions as an interconnected system.
• Sadly, land degradation affects over two-thirds of the world today. If left unchecked it will erode the very foundations of our societies, economies, food security, health, safety and quality of life. Therefore we have to reduce the tremendous pressure on land and its resources. Clearly a lot of work lies ahead of us. But we can do it. We can do it together.
• In India we have always given importance to land and considered the sacred Earth as our mother. India has taken the lead to highlight land degradation issues at international forums. The Delhi Declaration of 2019 called for better access and stewardship over land, and emphasised gender-sensitive transformative projects.
• In India, over the last 10 years, around 3 million ha of forest cover has been added. This has enhanced the combined forest cover to almost one fourth of the country's total area. We are on track to achieve our national commitment of Land Degradation Neutrality. We are also working towards restoring 26 million ha of degraded land by 2030. This would contribute to India's commitment to achieve an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
• We believe that restoration of land will start a virtuous cycle of good soil health, increased land productivity, food security and improved livelihoods. In many parts of India we have taken up some novel approaches. To give you just one example: The Banni region in Rann of Kutch in Gujarat suffers from highly degraded land and receives very little rainfall. In that region land restoration is done by developing grasslands which helps in achieving land degradation neutrality. It also supports pastoral activities and livelihood by promoting animal husbandry. In the same spirit we need to devise effective strategies for land restoration while promoting indigenous techniques.
• Land degradation poses a special challenge to the developing world. In the spirit of South-South cooperation, India is assisting fellow developing countries to develop land restoration strategies. A Centre of Excellence is being set up in India to promote a scientific approach towards land degradation issues.
• It is mankind's collective responsibility to reverse the damage to land caused by human activity. It is our sacred duty to leave a healthy planet for our future generations. 

New climate predictions increase likelihood of temporarily reaching 1.5 °C in next 5 years

In late May 2021, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, produced by the UK Met Office, the WMO lead centre for such predictions.

Recall that the WMO’s report on the State of the Global Climate 2020, released in April, said that in 2020 – one of the three warmest years on record – the global average temperature was 1.2 °C above the pre-industrial baseline. That report highlighted the acceleration in climate change indicators like rising sea levels, melting sea ice, and extreme weather, as well as worsening impacts on socio-economic development.

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update confirms that trend. The key messages of the Update were:

• There is about a 40% chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level in at least one of the next five years – and these odds are increasing with time. 
• There is a 90% likelihood of at least one year between 2021-2025 becoming the warmest on record, which would dislodge 2016 from the top ranking

• Annual mean global (land and sea) mean near-surface temperature is likely to be at least 1°C warmer than preindustrial levels (defined as the 1850-1900 average) in each of the coming 5 years and is very likely to be within the range 0.9 – 1.8°C.
• It is very unlikely (10%) that the 5 year mean annual global near-surface temperature for 2021-2025 will be 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels.
• Over 2021-2025, almost all regions, except parts of the southern oceans and the North Atlantic are likely to be warmer than the recent past (defined as the 1981-2010 average).
• Over 2021-2025, high latitude regions and the Sahel are likely to be wetter than the recent past.
• Over 2021-2025 there is an increased chance of more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic compared to the recent past.
• In 2021, large land areas in the Northern Hemisphere are likely to be over 0.8°C warmer than the recent past.
• In 2021, the Arctic (north of 60°N) is likely to have warmed by more than twice as much as the global mean compared to the recent past.
• In 2021, southwestern North America is likely to be drier than the recent past whereas the Sahel region and Australia are likely to be wetter.

Prof. Petteri Taalas, WMO Secretary-General, had this to say about the Update:

“These are more than just statistics. Increasing temperatures mean more melting ice, higher sea levels, more heatwaves and other extreme weather, and greater impacts on food security, health, the environment and sustainable development. This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably and inexorably closer to the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. It is yet another wakeup call that the world needs to fast-track commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality.”

“The Update also underlines the need for climate adaptation. Only half of 193 WMO Members have state of the art early warning services. Countries should continue to develop the services that will be needed to support adaptation in climate-sensitive sectors – such as health, water, agriculture and renewable energy – and promote early warning systems that reduce the adverse impacts of extreme events. Besides limitations in early warning services we are having severe gaps in weather observations especially in Africa and island states. This has a major negative impact on the accuracy if the early warnings in those areas and globally. We need to invest in the basic networks as well.”

The Paris Agreement seeks to keep global temperature rise this century well below 2°C degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C. National commitments to cut emissions, known as nationally determined contributions, currently fall far short of what is needed to achieve this target.

The year 2021, and the crucial climate change negotiations, COP26, in November, have been widely described as a “make-or-break” chance to prevent climate change spiralling ever more out of control.

NITI Aayog releases SDG India Index and Dashboard 2020-21

On June 3, 2021, NITI Aayog released the report “SDG India Index and Dashboard 2020-21”. NITI Aayog had developed the framework of such an Index back in 2018, to capture the progress made by our States and Union Territories. It has since become the primary tool to monitor the progress and achievements towards realising the 2030 Agenda. The Index, published annually since then, has become instrumental in bringing the SDGs on the table for policy dialogue, formulation and implementation among governments and civil society, while instilling a competitive spirit. 

For the 2021 Index, the composite score for each State/UT was computed by aggregating their performance across the goals, by taking the arithmetic mean of individual goal scores. The composite score ranges from 0 to 100 and denotes the overall achievement of the State/UT in achieving the targets under the Goals. A score of 100 implies that the State/UT has achieved the targets set for 2030; a score of 0 implies that the particular State/UT is at the bottom of the table.

The main results in the 2021 Index were:

• The SDG India Index 3.0 score for the States ranges between 52 and 75; for the UTs it belongs to the 62 to 79 band. This presents a notable improvement from 2019-20, when the scores varied between 50 and 70 for the States and 59 and 70 for the UTs.
• Kerala retained its rank as the top State with a score of 75. Chandigarh too maintained its top spot among the UTs with a score of 79. 
• Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh took the second spot while Goa, Uttarakhand, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh shared the fourth spot on the table.
• The composite score for India improved, from 60 in 2019-20 to 66 in 2020-21. This indicates that the country overall has progressed forward in its journey towards achieving the SDGs. Nine Goals drive the positive push – 3 (good health and well-being), 6 (clean water and sanitation), 7 (affordable and clean energy), 10 (reduced inequalities), 11 (sustainable cities and communities), 12 (responsible consumption and production), 13 (climate action), 15 (life on land), and 16 (peace, justice, and strong institutions), where India has scored between 65 and 99.
• Two goals - 2 (zero hunger) and 5 (gender equality) - demand special attention, as the overall country score is below 50. However, 9 States in Goal 2 and 12 States in Goal 5 moved out of the Aspirant category this year as compared to 2019-20.
• In the other five goals (excluding 14 - life below water, which applies only to 9 coastal States, and 17 - partnerships for the goals, which is qualitatively analysed), the overall score lies between 50 and 64, including both, indicating the scope for significant improvement in the coming years.
• While in 2019-20, 10 States/UTs belonged to the category of Front Runners (score in the range 65-99, including both), 12 more States/UTs find themselves in this category in 2020-21. Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Mizoram, Punjab, Haryana and Tripura graduated to the category of Front Runners (scores between 65 and 99, including both).
• Goal 6 has the highest number of Front Runners with 25 States in this category while Goals 5 and 9 have the highest Aspirants with 14 States each.
• In SDG 3, SDG 10, SDG 11 and SDG 12, the country score has moved from the Performer category to the Front Runner category. Among them, Goal 11 has seen the biggest movement from 53 in 2019-20 to 79 in 2020-21.
• All States have improved their score within a range of 1 to 12 points. Mizoram, Haryana, and Uttarakhand are the top gainers in 2020-21, in terms of improvement in score from 2019, with an increase of 12, 10 and 8 points, respectively. 

The Ken-Betwa Project: Huge outlay, questionable benefits, and high social and environmental costs.

On March 22, 2021, PM Narendra Modi presided over the signing of a memorandum of agreement between the Chief Ministers of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh that will launch the Ken-Betwa River-Linking Project. This project is part of the years-old national river linking scheme, which proposes to connect 14 Himalayan and 16 peninsular rivers with 30 canals and 3000 reservoirs in order to irrigate 87 million ha of land.

Under the Ken-Betwa Project, water from the Ken river will be transferred to the Betwa river. Both the rivers are tributaries of river Yamuna, but Ken is supposed to have excess water, which would be fed to Betwa through dams, tunnels, canals, and barrages. 

The project is located in Bundelkhand, a drought-prone region, which spreads across 13 districts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. The Union Jal Shakti Ministry claims that the project would provide annual irrigation of 10.62 lakh ha, supply drinking water to about 62 lakh people, generate 103 MW of hydropower, facilitate groundwater recharge, and reduce the occurrence of floods.

The project cost estimate is Rs.35,000 crore at 2017-18 prices, with the Centre contributing 90% of it. It will take eight years for completion.

The Ken-Betwa Project was first proposed in the 1980s, later the Vajpayee government took it up seriously, and more recently, the former Union Water Resources Minister Uma Bharti has been a great supporter. 

The environmental and social costs of the project will be huge:

• 12,500 ha of land will be submerged by the project, of which more than 9000 ha are categorised as forest land. 
• The submergence area will include an important section of the Panna Tiger Reserve. (This Reserve has been commended for the successful improvement of tiger and vulture populations.)
• 23 lakh trees with a girth of 20 cm or more will be cut down.. 
• Many wildlife species will be affected including tigers, endangered vultures, mahseer fish, and gharials in the Ken Gharial Sanctuary.
• Ten villages, including Daudhan, are expected to be submerged, displacing over 10,000 people.

The project has been pending for many years since it could not get all the required environmental clearances:

• It must get clearance from the Central Empowered Committee of the Supreme Court, which had raised concerns about the project. 
• The National Water Development Agency (NWDA) applied for forest clearance in 2015, but the Stage I forest clearance accorded in May 2017 stipulates several conditions that would imply a fundamental restructuring of the project. The conditions include that the proposed 78 MW power house shall not be constructed in the forest area and that no building material is to be taken from the forest, among others.

Environmentalists and local groups also question the supposed benefits of the project:

• The claims of Ken having surplus water may be unrealistic as the river is not perennial. Sometimes it slows to a trickle. 
• The Ken River flows 60-70 feet lower than the Betwa and at least 30% of the 103 MW power generated will be used for pumping the water up. 

In spite of these issues, the governments concerned seem to be going ahead with the project.

(This post is based on several news reports, including those by Himanshu Thakkar and Sunny Sebastian in 'The Hindu')

Global Hunger Index 2020 released: India ranks 94 out of 107 countries

The Global Hunger Index 2020 (GHI) was released in October 2020. GHI is a peer-reviewed annual report, jointly published by two international NGOs - Concern Worldwide and Welthungerhilfe. GHI is a tool designed to comprehensively measure and track hunger at global, regional, and national levels. GHI scores are calculated each year to assess progress and setbacks in combating hunger. 

GHI is designed to raise awareness and understanding of the struggle against hunger, provide a way to compare levels of hunger between countries and regions, and call attention to those areas of the world where hunger levels are highest and where the need for additional efforts to eliminate hunger is greatest.

GHI is calculated based on four indicators:

1. Undernourishment: Share of the population that is undernourished 
2. Child wasting: Share of children under the age of five who are wasted
3. Child stunting: Share of children under the age of five who are stunted
4. Child mortality: Mortality rate of children under the age of five. 

GHI ranks countries on a 100-point scale, with 0 being the best score (no hunger) and 100 being the worst. Values less than 10 reflect low hunger, values from 20 to 34.9 indicate serious hunger; values from 35 to 49.9 are alarming; and values of 50 or more are extremely alarming.

Progress and Setbacks

The 2020 GHI shows that while the world has made gradual progress in reducing hunger on a global scale since 2000, this progress has been too slow. The global level of hunger has fallen from a GHI score of 29.0 points in 2000 to 18.2 points in 2020. While this is encouraging, hunger persists in many countries, and in some instances, progress is even being reversed.

Where are Hunger Levels the Worst? 

Alarming levels of hunger exist in eleven countries: Chad, Timor-Leste, Madagascar, Central African Republic, Yemen, Comoros, Burundi, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria, and DR Congo. Several of these countries are experiencing unrest or violent conflict, which affects the availability of data as well as the food and nutrition situation in the country. 

Serious levels of hunger exists in 40 countries including India, Botswana, Kenya, Lesotho, and Mauritania. For 14 countries in the moderate, serious or alarming categories, hunger and malnutrition has worsened since 2012 – driven by conflict, poverty, inequality, poor health, and climate change. While the 2020 GHI does not yet reflect the impacts of COVID-19, it shows that the situation is already worrying in many contexts and is likely to worsen in the years to come.

Policy Recommendations

To ensure the right to adequate and nutritious food for all and to end hunger by 2030, we must not only reshape our food systems to become fair, healthy, resilient, and environmentally friendly but also integrate them into a broader political effort to maximize the health of humans, animals, and our planet.

• Make food systems work better for people and the planet   
• Improve how food systems are governed   
• Expand social investments for resilience   
• Make emergency and long-term development interventions more equitable and sustainable   
• Strengthen international cooperation and regulations

Key findings with regard to India:

• India has the highest prevalence of wasted children under five years in the world, which reflects acute undernutrition.
• India ranks 94 out of 107 countries in the Index, lower than her neighbours such as Bangladesh (75) and Pakistan (88).
• The report put India under serious category with the score of 27.2.
• The child stunting rate in India was 37.4 %.
• The child wasting was at 17.3 %.
• The undernourishment rate of India was at 14% and child mortality at 3.7%.

As expected, the Government of India objected to the ranking. Truth hurts!

New Zealand to launch world-first climate change rules

New Zealand is to become the world's first country to bring in a law forcing its financial firms to report on the effects of climate change. The country wants to be carbon neutral by 2050 and says the financial sector needs to play its part. “Banks, insurers and fund managers can do this by knowing the environmental effect of their investments,” says its Climate Change Minister James Shaw. "This law will bring climate risks and resilience into the heart of financial and business decision making.”

"Becoming the first country in the world to introduce a law like this means we have an opportunity to show real leadership and pave the way for other countries to make climate-related disclosures mandatory," said New Zealand's Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister David Clark.

"While some businesses have started publishing reports about how climate change may affect their business, strategies and financial position, there is still a long way to go," added Mr Clark.

About 200 of the country's biggest companies and several foreign firms that have assets of more than NZ$1bn ($703m) will come under the legislation.

The law will force financial firms to assess not only their own investments, but also to evaluate the companies they are lending money to, in terms of their environmental impact.

Legislation is expected to receive its first reading very soon. Once the law is passed, companies will have to start reporting on climate change impact in 2023.