Monday, 6 June 2022

Supreme Court order: Eco-sensitive zones of 1km a must in protected areas

On June 3, 2022, the Supreme Court directed that all national parks and wildlife sanctuaries in the country which fall under protected forest must earmark a minimum distance of one km as eco-sensitive zone (ESZ) where prohibited activities specified by the Centre, including mining and establishment of any new permanent structure will not be permitted.


The direction of the Court came on a bunch of applications filed in a pending petition filed by TN Godavarman, where the Court is passing orders for protection of forest resources. In the present order, the Court dealt with applications by private miners and states for prescribing ESZ surrounding wildlife sanctuaries and national parks, an issue pending in Court since 2003.Besides, the Court order also dealt with the issue of mining in and around the Jamua Ramgarh wildlife sanctuary, situated in Rajasthan.


A bench of justices L Nageswara Rao, BR Gavai and Aniruddha Bose said, “We direct that each protected forest, that is national park or wildlife sanctuary, must have an ESZ of minimum one kilometer measured from the demarcated boundary of such protected forest in which the activities proscribed and prescribed in the Guidelines of Ministry of Environment Forests and Climate Change (MoEFCC) on 9 February 2011 shall be strictly adhered to.”


Pointing to the role to be played by state in acting as trustee of natural resources more than facilitating economic activity in forests, Justice Bose who wrote the judgment for the bench said, “The state has to act as a trustee for the benefit of the general public in relation to the natural resources so that sustainable development can be achieved in the long term.”


The Court further stated, “Such role of the state is more relevant today, than, possibly at any point of time in history, with the threat of climate catastrophe resulting from global warming looming large.


Due to the long passage of time, the Court noted that in December 2006, the Supreme Court in another case relating to Goa mining had passed a direction for maintaining 10-kilometre-wide safety zone from the boundaries in respect of sanctuaries and national parks. However, this did not deal with the minimum boundary for ESZ.


The Court said that the present order would apply in all such states/UTs where the minimum ESZ is not prescribed. However, in the event there are states which have prescribed minimum ESZ beyond one kilometer, in that event the order said, “In the event, the ESZ is already prescribed as per law that goes beyond one kilometer buffer zone, the wider margin as ESZ shall prevail.” The CEC was also asked to examine the need for widening ESZ in respect of any national park or sanctuary and seek approval from Court after consulting the respective state/UT, Centre or Standing Committee of National Board of Wildlife.


The Centre had while coming out with February 2011 guidelines on ESZ had prescribed a 10-kilometre boundary based on responses received from states and UTs. The Court was conscious of the fact that a uniform ESZ for all national parks and sanctuaries would not be feasible as it noted special cases such as Sanjay Gandhi National Park in Mumbai and Guindy National Park in Chennai which are situated very close to the metropolis.


Even in case of Jamua Ramgarh national park, the Rajasthan government informed the top court that maintaining 10-kilometre ESZ was not feasible and requested for site-specific demarcation of ESZ. For all such exceptions, the Court made provision by stating that “the minimum width of ESZ may be diluted iin overwhelming public interest”. But for that purpose, the Court said, “The state or UT concerned shall approach the Court-appointed Central Empowered Committee (CEC) and MoEFCC and both these bodies shall give their respective opinions or recommendations before this Court based on which this Court shall pass appropriate order.”


As for Jamua Ramgarh, the Court went by a CEC report of November 2003 giving a “horrific picture” of how private miners ravaged the protected forest area spread over 300 square kilometers and held that the 1-kilometre ESZ norm will apply for commencement of new activity while for subsisting activities, the minimum ESZ of 500 metres would be maintained. The Court further directed the CEC to quantify compensation for each miner who indulged in mining activity within the Jamua Ramgarh sanctuary and file a report in four months with specific recommendations for compensatory afforestation, clearing the overburden dumps and compensation for degradation of forest resources.


In addition, the Court directed the Principal Chief Conservator of Forests (PCCF) of each state and UT to submit a report in three months to the Court providing a list of activities continuing in the ESZ of every national park or wildlife sanctuary by taking assistance from government for satellite imaging or photography using drones.


Further, the Court entrusted the PCCF to ensure that no new permanent structure comes up within ESZ and those already carrying out any activity will have to apply for permission afresh from the PCCF within six months.


The Court noted that since some of the issues being dealt with had overlap with petitions filed in the Goa mining case, the bench directed the matter to be placed before the Chief Justice of India (CJI) for placing the matter before the appropriate bench where the Goa mining matters are pending.


Source: The Hindustan Times

 

Thursday, 19 May 2022

WMO State of the Global Climate in 2021 report released

On May 18, 2022, UN WMO released the State of the Global Climate in 2021 report, which will be used as an official document for the UN Climate Change negotiations (COP27) set to take place in Egypt later this year.

According to the Report, four key climate change indicators – greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise, ocean heat and ocean acidification – set new records in 2021. This is yet another clear sign that human activities are causing planetary scale changes on land, in the ocean, and in the atmosphere, with harmful and long-lasting ramifications for sustainable development and ecosystems.


Extreme weather – the day-to-day “face” of climate change – led to hundreds of billions of dollars in economic losses and wreaked a heavy toll on human lives and well-being and triggered shocks for food and water security and displacement that have accentuated in 2022.


The Report confirmed that the past seven years have been the warmest seven years on record. 2021 was “only” one of the seven warmest because of a La Niña event at the start and end of the year. This had a temporary cooling effect but did not reverse the overall trend of rising temperatures. The average global temperature in 2021 was about 1.11 (± 0.13) °C above the pre-industrial level.


Key Messages


Greenhouse gas concentrations reached a new global high in 2020, when the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) reached 413.2 parts per million (ppm) globally, or 149% of the pre-industrial level. Data from specific locations indicate that they continued to increase in 2021 and early 2022, with monthly average CO2 at Mona Loa in Hawaii reaching 416.45 ppm in April 2020, 419.05 ppm in April 2021, and 420.23 ppm in April 2022.


The global annual mean temperature in 2021 was around 1.11±0.13°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, less warm than some recent years owing to cooling La Niña conditions at the start and end of the year. The most recent seven years, 2015 to 2021, are the seven warmest years on record. 


Ocean heat was record high. The upper 2000m depth of the ocean continued to warm in 2021 and it is expected that it will continue to warm in the future – a change which is irreversible on centennial to millennial time scales. All data sets agree that ocean warming rates show a particularly strong increase in the past two decades. The warmth is penetrating to ever deeper levels. Much of the ocean experienced at least one ‘strong’ marine heatwave at some point in 2021.


Ocean acidification. The ocean absorbs around 23% of the annual emissions of anthropogenic CO2 to the atmosphere. This reacts with seawater and leads to ocean acidification, which threatens organisms and ecosystem services, and hence food security, tourism and coastal protection. As the pH of the ocean decreases, its capacity to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere also declines. The IPCC concluded that “there is very high confidence that open ocean surface pH is now the lowest it has been for at least 26,000 years and current rates of pH change are unprecedented since at least that time.


Global mean sea level reached a new record high in 2021, after increasing at an average 4.5 mm per year over the period 2013 -2021. This is more than double the rate of between 1993 and 2002 and is mainly due to the accelerated loss of ice mass from the ice sheets. This has major implications for hundreds of millions of coastal dwellers and increases vulnerability to tropical cyclones.


Cryosphere: Although the glaciological year 2020-2021 saw less melting than in recent years, there is a clear trend towards an acceleration of mass loss on multi-decadal timescales. On average, the world’s reference glaciers have thinned by 33.5 meters (ice-equivalent) since 1950, with 76% of this thinning since 1980. 2021 was a particularly punishing year for glaciers in Canada and the US Northwest with record ice mass loss as a result of heatwaves and fires in June and July.  Greenland experienced an exceptional mid-August melt event and the first-ever recorded rainfall at Summit Station, the highest point on the ice sheet at an altitude of 3 216 m.  


Exceptional heatwaves broke records across western North America and the Mediterranean. Death Valley, California reached 54.4 °C on 9 July, equalling a similar 2020 value as the highest recorded in the world since at least the 1930s, and Syracuse in Sicily reached 48.8 °C. The Canadian province of British Columbia, reached 49.6 °C on 29 June, and this contributed to more than 500 reported heat-related deaths and fuelled devastating wildfires which, in turn, worsened the impacts of flooding in November.


Flooding induced economic losses of US$17.7 billion in Henan province of China, and Western Europe experienced some of its most severe flooding on record in mid-July associated with economic losses in Germany exceeding US$20 billion. There was heavy loss of life.


Drought affected many parts of the world, including the Horn of Africa, Canada, the western United States, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Turkey. In sub-tropical South America, drought caused big agricultural losses and disrupted energy production and river transport. The drought in the Horn of Africa has intensified so far in 2022. Eastern Africa is facing the very real prospect that the rains will fail for a fourth consecutive season, placing Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalis into a drought of a length not experienced in the last 40 years. Humanitarian agencies are warning of devastating impacts on people and livelihoods in the region.


Hurricane Ida was the most significant of the North Atlantic season, making landfall in Louisiana on 29 August, with economic losses in the United States estimated at US$75 billion. 


The ozone hole over the Antarctic was unusually large and deep, reaching its maximum area of 24.8million sq km (the size of Africa) as a result of a strong and stable polar vortex and colder than average conditions in the lower stratosphere. 


Food security:  The compounded effects of conflict, extreme weather events and economic shocks, further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, undermined decades of progress towards improving food security globally.  Worsening humanitarian crises in 2021 have also led to a growing number of countries at risk of famine. Of the total number of undernourished people in 2020, more than half live in Asia (418 million) and a third in Africa (282 million).


Displacement:  Hydrometeorological hazards continued to contribute to internal displacement. The countries with the highest numbers of displacements recorded as of October 2021 were China (more than 1.4 million), the Philippines (more than 386000) and Viet Nam (more than 664000).  


Ecosystems: including terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems – and the services they provide, are affected by the changing climate and some are more vulnerable than others. Some ecosystems are degrading at an unprecedented rate. For example, mountain ecosystems – the water towers of the world – are profoundly affected. Rising temperatures heighten the risk of irreversible loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, including seagrass meadows and kelp forest. Coral reefs are especially vulnerable to climate change. They are projected to lose between 70 and 90% of their former coverage area at 1.5 °C of warming and over 99% at 2 °C. Between 20 and 90% of current coastal wetlands are at risk of being lost by the end of this century, depending on how fast sea levels rise. This will further compromise food provision, tourism, and coastal protection, among other ecosystem services.

Saturday, 14 May 2022

Birdlife International releases State of the World’s Birds: 2022 Annual Update

BirdLife International is a global NGO with the mission of conserving birds, their habitats and global biodiversity, working with people toward sustainability in the use of natural resources. They are a global family of over 115 national Partners covering all continents, landscapes and seascapes. The Indian partner is the Bombay Natural History Society.

With regional offices in Accra, Amman, Brussels, Cambridge, Dakar, Nairobi, Singapore, Suva, Tokyo, and Quito, they are the largest international partnership for nature conservation. They have over 13 million individual members and supporters, and unify over 100 nature conservation organizations from across the planet. Their network of over 2 million birders, scientists and local volunteers helps them to track, follow, analyse, conserve and understand every bird species in the world. BirdLife International is the official IUCN Red List Authority for birds, responsible for assessing and documenting the global extinction risk of all 11,000+ species for the IUCN Red List. 


BirdLife’s long-running State of the World’s Birds series brings together and effectively communicates the latest scientific research on the state of the planet, the pressures on nature, and the solutions needed to conserve species and habitats. 


The State of the World’s Birds: 2022 Annual Update summarises and profiles some of the key developments in bird science and conservation over the last year. Since the last comprehensive edition of State of the World’s Birds was published in 2018, knowledge and evidence has continued to accumulate about the changing conservation status and trends of the world’s birds, the threats causing birds to decline, and the conservation actions being taken to improve their status.


The Table below shows the state of bird species according to the 2022 Update.


IUCN Category

No of Species

Change from 2020 Update

Extinct (EX)

159


Extinct in the Wild (EW)

5


Critically Endangered (CR)

225

+2

Endangered (EN)

447

-13

Vulnerable (VU)

773

-25

Near Threatened (NT)

1010

+9

Least Concern (LC)

8493

+33

Data Deficient (DD)

50

-2


Thus, 1445 bird species (CR+EN+NT) are globally threatened. 


Analysis of data from BirdLife’s latest species assessments for the IUCN Red List shows that the threats affecting the greatest number of the world’s threatened bird species are (in descending order) agriculture, logging, hunting and trapping, invasive alien species, residential and commercial development, and fire and fire suppression. These same threats also emerge highly from monitoring of Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) by the BirdLife Partnership.


During implementation of the 2013-2020 BirdLife Strategy, 726 globally threatened bird species (46%) directly benefitted from the work of the BirdLife Partnership. These include European Turtle-dove Streptopelia turtur, a focus for 35 BirdLife Partners; 13 species of albatross, which have benefitted from the BirdLife International Marine Programme; and 15 Critically Endangered species that have been studied by PhD students supervised by BirdLife staff.


Tuesday, 26 April 2022

UN World Water Development Report - 2022 edition

The UN World Water Development Report is UN-Water's flagship report on water and sanitation issues, focusing on a different theme each year. The report is published by UNESCO, on behalf of UN-Water and its production is coordinated by the UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme. The report gives insight on main trends concerning the state, use and management of freshwater and sanitation

The 2022 edition of UNWWDR was released on World Water Day on March 22, 2022. Titled Groundwater: Making the invisible visible, it describes the challenges and opportunities associated with the development, management and governance of groundwater across the world. The report addresses groundwater-related issues from the perspective of the three main water use sectors – agriculture, human settlements and industry – as well as its interactions with ecosystems and its relation to climate change. It highlights different regional perspectives


Key messages:

  • Globally, water use is expected to grow by roughly 1% per year over the next 30 years. 
  • This growth is primarily concentrated in emerging economies and middle- and lower-income countries. It is driven by increasing demands from the agriculture (food), industry and energy sectors as well as by municipal and domestic uses. 
  • This growth is mainly as a function of industrial development and improving water and sanitation service coverage, in combination with population growth, economic development and shifting diets and consumption patterns. 
  • Combined with surface water scarcity, which is increasing due to climate change, the water crises facing humanity is real, but it is avoidable. 
  • While our reliance on groundwater will also definitely increase, its full potential remains largely untapped. 
  • Groundwater accounts for 99% of all liquid freshwater on Earth.
  • Massive volumes of fresh groundwater are present below ground and distributed over the entire globe. However, their abundance and the conditions for their withdrawal can be very different from place to place.
  • At the global level, 25% of the total freshwater we use comes from groundwater. 
  • Groundwater provides 50% of the volume of freshwater withdrawn for domestic use worldwide, including the drinking water for the vast majority of the rural population.
  • It also accounts for around 25% of all water withdrawn for irrigation, serving 38% of the world’s irrigated land.
  • Overall, the agricultural sector accounts for 69% of all groundwater abstractions, followed by 22% for domestic uses, and 9% for industrial purposes.
  • Groundwater withdrawal boomed during the 20th century, doubling over the past 70 years.
  • Groundwater withdrawal for human uses is very important, but it corresponds to only one category of the services offered by groundwater systems. 
  • In addition to the provisional services, groundwater systems provide regulatory and supporting services related to water availability, quality, and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. For example, they can play a role in water purification, provided that pollution levels do not exceed their natural decontamination capacity.
  • Groundwater systems also provide cultural services including leisure activities. Traditional, religious or spiritual values are sometimes associated with particular wells or natural springs. 
  • Groundwater storage depletion, accompanied by declining groundwater levels, occurs when groundwater discharge (i.e. the sum of groundwater withdrawal and ‘unforced’ or natural discharge) exceeds recharge. 
  • The rate of global aggregated groundwater depletion is considerable: for the beginning of the present century, the estimates are mostly between 100 and 200 cu.km/year, accounting for roughly 15 to 25% of total groundwater withdrawals. 
  • The quality of groundwater is generally good, which means it can be used safely and affordably, without requiring advanced levels of treatment. 
  • Groundwater pollution reduces the suitability of abstracted groundwater for drinking purposes and other human uses. And, like groundwater depletion, it can also negatively impact groundwater-dependent ecosystems.
  • The Asia-Pacific region is the largest groundwater abstractor in the world, containing seven out of the ten countries that extract most groundwater (Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey). These countries alone account for roughly 60% of the world’s total groundwater withdrawal. 
  • While groundwater is abundant across most of the region, its depletion has led to concerns over the sustainability of groundwater usage in different areas across Central Asia, China, South Asia and certain urban centres in Southeast Asia. Climate change is further exacerbating pressure on groundwater resources, particularly in areas with semi-arid to arid climates and on Pacific Small Island Developing States, where groundwater, often the only reliable source of freshwater, is threatened by rising sea levels.
  • Groundwater contamination from both anthropogenic and geogenic processes is an additional concern.

The take away messages from the report are:

  • The abundance of groundwater resources will prove essential in meeting increasing global demands for water, especially during periods of severe water stress.
  • Improved groundwater management and governance are needed in order to avoid overexploitation and contamination.
  • Groundwater systems support valuable ecosystem services and can play a critical role in climate change adaptation and mitigation.
  • The development of under-exploited groundwater resources in places like Sub-Saharan Africa offers opportunities for food security and economic growth.
  • Given its common-pool nature, all data and information about aquifer systems should be made available to groundwater managers.
  • Unlocking the full potential of groundwater for ourselves and for future generations will require strong and concerted efforts to manage and use it sustainably.

Wednesday, 6 April 2022

IPCC Latest Report on Climate Change: Key Findings

The IPCC Working Group III report, Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of climate change was released on April 4, 2022. It is the third instalment of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which will be completed in 2022.


According to the World Resources Institute, the following are six key findings from the IPCC’s report on climate change mitigation: 

1. Global GHG emissions have continued to rise, but in pathways that limit warming to 1.5 degrees C, they peak before 2025.  

While there are some signs of progress — the annual rate of GHG emissions growth declined from an average of 2.1% between 2000 and 2009 to 1.3% between 2010 and 2019, and 24 countries have sustained their GHG emissions reductions for over a decade — global efforts to mitigate climate change remain far off-track.


2. There's no room for building new fossil fuel infrastructure.

The IPCC shows that in pathways that limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (with no or limited overshoot), just a net 510 Gt of CO2 can still be emitted before CO2 emissions reach net zero around mid-century (2050-2055). Yet future CO2 emissions from existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure alone could reach 850 Gt — 340 Gt more than that limit.


A mix of strategies can help avoid locking in these CO2 emissions, including retiring existing fossil fuel infrastructure, cancelling new projects, retrofitting fossil-fueled power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and switching to lower-carbon fuels.


3. We need rapid transformations across all systems to avoid the worst climate impacts. 

GHG emissions have risen across all major systems since last assessed. The IPCC finds that reversing course will require decision-makers in government, civil society and the private sector to prioritize the following actions, many of which pay for themselves or cost less than $20 per tonne of CO2e:

  • Scale up clean energy.
  • Double-down on innovation to decarbonize industry.
  • Incentivize green buildings.
  • Redesign cities and shift to zero- and low-carbon transport. 
  • Conserve ecosystems and improve food systems.

4. Changes in lifestyle and behaviors have a significant role to play in mitigating climate change.

Worldwide, households with incomes in the top decile, which includes a large share of households in developed countries, are responsible for 36-45% of total GHG emissions, while families earning in the bottom 50% account for just 13-15%. Achieving universal access to modern energy for the world’s poorest, the IPCC further finds, would not significantly impact global emissions.


But shifting consumption patterns, particularly among the world’s wealthiest, can slash GHG emissions by 40-70% by 2050 when compared with current climate policies. Walking or cycling, avoiding long-haul flights, shifting to plant-based diets, cutting food waste, and using energy more efficiently in buildings are among the most effective demand-side mitigation options.


5. Limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C will be impossible without carbon removal. 

The IPCC found that all pathways that limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (with no or limited overshoot) depend on carbon removal. These approaches can include both natural solutions, such as sequestering and storing carbon in trees and soil, as well as technologies that pull CO2 directly out of the atmosphere.


6. Climate finance for mitigation must be 3 to 6 times higher by 2030 to limit warming to below 2 degrees C. 

Annual public and private finance for climate change mitigation and adaptation rose by up to 60% from 2013 to 2020. However, these gains have slowed in recent years, and to make matters worse, the IPCC found that finance for fossil fuels still outstrips funding for climate action.


This misalignment of global capital has resulted in a substantial shortfall between current levels of climate finance and those needed to mitigate climate change, which persists across all regions and all sectors. This gap is widest in developing countries, particularly those already struggling with debt, poor credit ratings and economic burdens from the COVID-19 pandemic. Investors’ tendency to channel greater shares of capital into their own countries, as well as the systemic underpricing of climate risks, pose additional challenges for scaling up private finance across these nations.


Where Do We Go from Here?

As this latest IPCC report makes clear, holding global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C is still possible, but only if we act immediately. The world needs to peak GHG emissions before 2025, nearly halve GHG emissions by 2030, and reach net-zero CO2 emissions around mid-century, while also ensuring a just and equitable transition. With escalating risks from droughts, floods, wildfires and other disastrous effects of climate change, these are deadlines we simply cannot afford to miss. 

Saturday, 19 March 2022

Indian Plans for Deep Ocean Mission

M. Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences made the following announcements at the International Indian Ocean Conference (IIOC) organised by Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), which concluded on March 18, 2022:

  • As part of its 'Deep Ocean Mission', India has plans to introduce eight deep ocean gliders having 6-12 months endurance to travel from 3,000 km to 4,500 km, about 48 deep Argo floats at 6,000-metre depth at 24 locations and another 150 wave drifters to strengthen the capacity of observations in the Indian Ocean. 
  • Manned submersible vehicles which can go up to 6,000 metres deep, scientific cruises to scour the ocean and also a new multidisciplinary research vessel in the next three years are on the anvil.
  • The Oceansat-3 satellite is scheduled to be launched next year. 
  • With the help of these in situ and satellite data of sea temperatures, currents, salinity etc., Indian scientists are trying to predict as much accurate as possible the various climatic conditions and the monsoons.
  • The Centre is drafting a policy on ‘Blue Economy’ of which the ‘Deep Ocean Mission’ forms an integral part for which about 4,077 crore has been allotted over a five-year period.
  • The policy will enunciate the way forward on sustainable ocean development in mining of deep sea and coastal resources, off-shore energy and climate services. 
  • An engineering design for ocean thermal energy conversion to generate power and others have been identified for further research for precise observations and predictions of future cyclones, ocean health through statistical and dynamic modelling and observation networks. 
  • The objective is to bolster the deep ocean observation with more platforms and prepare a framework model for future services on how and when cyclones and storm surges will happen, whether their numbers will increase or intensity with global warming, harmful algal bloom, coastal morphology, erosion, etc.


The four-day virtual conference, inaugurated by Union Minister Jitendra Singh, was to assess the progress and scientific knowledge gained during the second phase of International Indian Ocean Expedition (IIOE) launched in 2015. About 400 delegates from 20 countries participated in it. 

Wednesday, 2 March 2022

Release of the IPCC Working Group II Report

On February 28, 2022, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II, which deals with impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, released its report. It was a part of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which will be completed in 2022.

The key messages of the Report were:


1. Observed and Projected Impacts and Risks

  • Human-induced climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme events, has caused widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people, beyond natural climate variability. Some development and adaptation efforts have reduced vulnerability.
  • Vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change differs substantially among and within regions driven by patterns of intersecting socio-economic development, unsustainable ocean and land use, inequity, marginalization, historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, and governance. Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change.
  • Global warming, reaching 1.5 deg C in the near-term, would cause unavoidable increases in multiple climate hazards and present multiple risks to ecosystems and humans. Near-term actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5 deg C would substantially reduce projected losses and damages related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems, compared to higher warming levels, but cannot eliminate them all.
  • Beyond 2040 and depending on the level of global warming, climate change will lead to numerous risks to natural and human systems. For 127 identified key risks, assessed mid- and long-term impacts are up to multiple times higher than currently observed. 
  • Climate change impacts and risks are becoming increasingly complex and more difficult to manage. Some responses to climate change result in new impacts and risks.
  • If global warming transiently exceeds 1.5 C in the coming decades or later (overshoot), then many human and natural systems will face additional severe risks, compared to remaining below 1.5 C. 

2. Current Adaptation and its Benefits

  • Progress in adaptation planning and implementation has been observed across all sectors and regions, generating multiple benefits. However, adaptation progress is unevenly distributed with observed adaptation gaps.
  • There are feasible and effective adaptation options which can reduce risks to people and nature. The feasibility of implementing adaptation options in the near-term differs across sectors and regions. Integrated, multi-sectoral solutions that address social inequities, differentiate responses based on climate risk and cut across systems, increase the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation in multiple sectors.
  • Soft limits to some human adaptation have been reached, but can be overcome by addressing a range of constraints: primarily financial, governance,  institutional and policy constraints. Hard limits to adaptation have been reached in some ecosystems. 
  • There is increased evidence of maladaptation across many sectors and regions since the  Assessment Report 5 (AR5). Maladaptation can be avoided by flexible, multi-sectoral, inclusive and long-term planning and implementation of adaptation actions with benefits to many sectors and systems.
  • Enabling conditions are key for implementing, accelerating and sustaining adaptation in human systems and ecosystems. These include political commitment and follow-through, institutional frameworks, policies and instruments with clear goals and priorities, enhanced knowledge on impacts and solutions, mobilization of and access to adequate financial resources, monitoring and evaluation, and inclusive governance processes.

3. Climate Resilient Development

  • Evidence of observed impacts, projected risks, levels and trends in vulnerability, and adaptation limits, demonstrate that worldwide climate resilient development action is more urgent than previously assessed in AR5. 
  • Climate resilient development is enabled when governments, civil society and the private sector make inclusive development choices that prioritise risk reduction, equity and justice, and when decision-making processes, finance and actions are integrated across governance levels, sectors and timeframes. 
  • Climate resilient development is facilitated by international cooperation and by governments at all levels working with communities, civil society, educational bodies, scientific and other institutions, media, investors and businesses; and by developing partnerships with traditionally marginalised groups, including women, youth, Indigenous Peoples, local communities and ethnic minorities.
  • Interactions between changing urban form, exposure and vulnerability can create climate change induced risks and losses for cities and settlements. However, the global trend of urbanisation also offers a critical opportunity in the near-term, to advance climate resilient development. Climate resilient development in urban areas also supports adaptive capacity in more rural places through maintaining peri-urban supply chains of goods and services and financial flows.
  • Safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystems is fundamental to climate resilient development, in light of the threats climate change poses to them and their roles in adaptation and mitigation. 
  • It is unequivocal that climate change has already disrupted human and natural systems. Past and current development trends (past emissions, development and climate change) have not advanced global climate resilient development. Societal choices and actions implemented in the next decade determine the extent to which medium- and long-term pathways will deliver higher or lower climate resilient development.