IRENA Energy Transitions Report

In July 2023, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) released the Report: World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023: 1.5°C Pathway. The Report outlines a vision for the transition of the energy landscape to reflect the goals of the Paris Agreement, presenting a pathway for limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C and bringing CO2 emissions to net zero by mid-century.

 

The 1.5°C Scenario describes an energy transition pathway aligned   with the 1.5°C climate goal to limit global average temperature increase by the end of the present century to 1.5°C, relative to pre- industrial levels. It prioritises readily available technology solutions, which can be scaled up to meet the 1.5°C goal.

 

The key messages of the report were:

• The energy transition is off-track. The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ripple effects of the Ukraine crisis have further compounded the challenges facing the transition. The stakes could not be higher - every fraction of a degree in global temperature change can trigger significant and far-reaching consequences for natural systems, human societies and economies.
• Limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires cutting carbon  dioxide (CO2) emissions by around 37 gigatonnes (Gt) from 2022 levels and achieving net-zero emissions in the energy sector by 2050. Despite some progress, significant gaps remain between the current deployment of energy transition technologies and the levels needed to achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to within 1.5°C of pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. A 1.5°C compatible pathway requires a wholescale transformation of the way societies consume and produce energy.
• Current pledges and plans fall well short of IRENA’s 1.5°C pathway and will result in an emissions gap of 16 Gt in 2050. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS) and net-zero targets, if fully implemented, could reduce CO2 emissions by 6% by 2030 and 56% by 2050, compared to 2022 levels. However, most climate pledges are yet to be translated into detailed national strategies and plans - implemented through policies and regulations - or supported with sufficient funding. According to IRENA's Planned Energy Scenario, the energy-related emissions gap is projected to reach 34 Gt by 2050, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive action to accelerate the transition.
• Annual deployment of some 1 000 GW of renewable power is needed to stay on a 1.5°C pathway. In 2022, some 300 GW of renewables were added globally, accounting for 83% of new capacity compared to a 17% share combined for fossil fuel and nuclear additions. Both the volume and share of renewables need to grow substantially, which is both technically feasible and economically viable.
• Policies and investments are not consistently moving in the right direction. While there were record renewable power capacity additions in 2022, the year also saw the highest levels of fossil fuel subsidies ever, as many governments sought to cushion the blow of high energy prices for consumers and businesses. Global investments across all energy transition technologies reached a record high of USD 1.3 trillion in 2022, yet fossil fuel capital investments were almost twice those of renewable energy investments. With renewables and energy efficiency best placed to meet climate commitments - as well as energy security and energy affordability objectives – governments need to redouble their efforts to ensure investments are on the right track.
• Every year, the gap between what is achieved and what is required continues to grow. IRENA’s energy transition indicators show significant acceleration is needed across energy sectors and technologies, from deeper end-use electrification of transport and heat, to direct renewable use, energy efficiency and infrastructure additions. Delays only add to the already considerable challenge of meeting IPCC-defined emission reduction levels in 2030 and 2050 for a 1.5°C trajectory. This lack of progress will also increase future investment needs and the costs of worsening climate change effects.

SDG Progress Report

In May 2023, the UN Secretary-General released the report “Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals: Towards a Rescue Plan for People and Planet.”

The key messages of the report were:

• Leave no one behind. That defining principle of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is a shared promise by every country to work together to secure the rights and well-being of everyone on a healthy, thriving planet. But halfway to 2030, that promise is in peril.
• Early efforts after the SDGs were adopted produced some favourable trends. Extreme poverty and child mortality rates continued to fall. Inroads were made against such diseases as HIV and hepatitis. Some targets for gender equality were seeing positive results. Electricity access in the poorest countries was on the rise and the share of renewables in the energy mix was increasing. Globally, unemployment was back to levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. The proportion of waters under national jurisdiction covered by marine protected areas had more than doubled in five years. But it is clear now that too much of this progress was fragile and most of it was too slow. In the past three years, the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and climate-related disasters have exacerbated already faltering progress.
• At the mid-way point on our way to 2030, the SDGs are in deep trouble. A preliminary assessment of the roughly 140 targets with data show only about 12% are on track; close to half, though showing progress, are moderately or severely off track and some 30% have either seen no movement or regressed below the 2015 baseline.
• Under current trends, 575 million people will still be living in extreme poverty in 2030 - and only about one third of countries will meet the target to halve national poverty levels. Shockingly, the world is back at hunger levels not seen since 2005 – and food prices remain higher in more countries than in the period from 2015-2019. The way things are going, it will take 286 years to close gender gaps in legal protection and remove discriminatory laws. And in the area of education, the impacts of years of underinvestment and learning losses are such that by 2030, some 84 million children will be out of school and 300 million children or young people who attend school will leave unable to read and write.
• If ever there was an illumination of the short sightedness of our prevailing economic and political systems, it is the ratcheting up of the war on nature. A small window of opportunity is fast closing to limit global temperatures to 1.5 degrees and prevent the worst impacts of the climate crisis and secure climate justice for people, communities and countries on the frontlines of climate change. Carbon dioxide levels continue to rise – to a level not seen in 2 million years. At the current rate of progress, renewables will remain a mere fraction of our energy supplies in 2030, some 660 million people will remain without electricity and close to 2 billion will continue to rely on polluting fuels and technologies for cooking.  So much of our lives and health depend on nature, yet it could take another 25 years to halt deforestation and vast numbers of species worldwide are threatened with extinction.
• The lack of SDG progress is universal, but it is abundantly clear that developing countries and the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people are bearing the brunt of our collective failure. This is a direct result of global injustices that go back hundreds of years but are still playing out today. Compounding climate, COVID and economic injustices are leaving many developing countries with fewer options and even less resources to make the SDGs a reality.

 

The Secretary-General’s call to member nations:

• I urge Heads of State and Government to recommit to seven years of accelerated, sustained and transformative action, both nationally   and internationally, to deliver on the promise of the SDGs.
• I call on governments to advance concrete, integrated and targeted policies and actions to eradicate poverty, reduce inequality and end the war on nature, with a particular focus on advancing the rights women and girls and empowering the most vulnerable.
• I also urge leaders to embrace my Climate Acceleration Agenda to drive a just renewables revolution and secure climate justice for those on the frontlines of the climate  crisis.    We must also deliver on  the Kunming-Montreal  Global Biodiversity Framework, work to further reduce risks from disasters, and build integrated and sustainable food, water and sanitation systems while making the right to a healthy environment a reality for all people.
• I urge on governments to strengthen national and sub-national capacity, accountability and public institutions to deliver accelerated SDG progress.
• To ensure developing countries can deliver in the above areas,  I strongly encourage the international community to recommit this September to deliver on the Addis Ababa Action Agenda and to mobilize the resources and investment needed for developing countries to achieve the SDGs, particularly those in special situations and experiencing acute vulnerability.
• I urge member states to facilitate the continued strengthening of the UN development system and to boost the capacity of the multilateral system to tackle emerging challenges and address SDG related gaps and weaknesses in the international architecture that have emerged since 2015.

 

An SDG Summit will be held in September 2023 to review the progress of the SDGs.