Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window

UNEP released its Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window on October 27, 2022. As climate impacts intensify, the Report finds that the world is still falling short of the Paris climate goals, with no credible pathway to 1.5°C in place. Only an urgent system-wide transformation can avoid an accelerating climate disaster. The report looks at how to deliver this transformation, through action in the electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems. 

The key messages were:

Despite a call for strengthened Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2030, progress since COP26 in Glasgow has been woefully inadequate. 

• NDCs submitted since COP26 take only 0.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas emissions (GtCO2e), less than one per cent, off projected global emissions in 2030. 

• Looking at all new and updated NDCs submitted between 1 January 2020 and 23 September 2022, the count is 166 nations, representing 91 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions, up from 152 parties as of COP26. 

• Most G20 members have just started implementing efforts to meet their new targets; collectively, the G20 is expected to fall short of its 2030 promises without strengthened action. 

This lack of progress leaves the world on a path towards a temperature rise far above the Paris Agreement goal of well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C. 

• Unconditional NDCs are estimated to give a 66 per cent chance of limiting global warming to about 2.6°C by the end of the century. For conditional NDCs, this goes down to 2.4°C. 

• Policies currently in place, without further strengthening, suggest a 2.8°C hike. 

• Implementation of all NDCs plus net-zero commitments made by an increasing number of countries point to a 1.8°C increase. However, this scenario is not credible, based on the discrepancy between current emissions, near-term NDC targets and long-term net-zero targets. 

To get on track to meet the Paris Agreement goal, the world needs to reduce greenhouse gases by unprecedented levels over the next eight years. 

• Unconditional and conditional NDCs are estimated to reduce global emissions in 2030 by 5 and 10 per cent respectively, compared with emissions based on policies currently in place. 

• To get on a least-cost pathway to limiting global warming to 2°C and 1.5°C, these percentages must reach 30 per cent and 45 per cent respectively. 

Emissions must continue to decline rapidly after 2030 to avoid exhausting the remaining atmospheric carbon budget. Such massive cuts require a large-scale, rapid and systemic transformation across the globe.

• The report explores the required actions in the electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems that would back these changes.

• Even if the transformation fails to fully bridge the 2030 emissions gap, every fraction of a degree matters. Launching the transformation is necessary to move towards a carbon-neutral future that will allow us to limit global warming and deliver other social and environmental benefits, like clean air, green jobs and universal energy access.

The transformation towards zero greenhouse gas emissions in electricity supply, industry, transportation and buildings is underway but needs to move much faster.

• Electricity supply is most advanced, as the costs of renewable electricity for solar and wind have fallen, but obstacles exist – including ensuring a just transition and universal energy access.

• For buildings, currently available technologies need to be fully applied. For industry and transport, zero-emission technology needs to be further developed and deployed.

• The portfolio of the key actions to advance the transformation include:

o avoiding lock in of new fossil fuel-intensive infrastructure,

o further advancing zero-carbon technologies, market structures and planning for a just transformation,

o applying zero-emission technology and behavioural changes to sustain reductions to reach zero emissions.

Food systems, which account for one third of all emissions, can be reformed to deliver rapid and lasting cuts.

• Focus areas for food systems include demand-side dietary changes (including tackling food waste), protection of natural ecosystems, improvements in food production at the farm level and decarbonization of food supply chains.

• Transformations in the four areas can reduce 2050 food systems emissions to around a third of current levels; as opposed to emissions almost doubling if current practices remain in place.

• Governments can facilitate transformation by reforming subsidies and tax schemes. The private sector can reduce food loss and waste, use renewable energy and develop novel foods that cut down carbon emissions. Individual citizens can change their lifestyles to consume food for environmental sustainability and carbon reduction.

The financial system must overcome internal and external constraints to become a critical enabler of transformation across all sectors.

• A global transformation to a low-carbon economy is expected to require investments of at least USD 4-6 trillion a year. This is a relatively small (1.5-2 per cent) share of total financial assets managed, but significant (20-28 per cent) in terms of additional annual resources needed.

• Delivering such funding will require a transformation of the financial system and its structures and processes, engaging governments, central banks, commercial banks, institutional investors and other financial actors.

• The six approaches to financial sector reform, which must be carried out in an integrated manner, are:

o Make financial markets more efficient, including through taxonomies and transparency.

o Introduce carbon pricing, such as taxes or cap-and-trade systems. 

o Nudge financial behaviour, through public policy interventions, taxes, spending and regulations. 

o Create markets for low-carbon technology, through shifting financial flows, stimulating innovation and helping to set standards. 

o Mobilize central banks: central banks are increasingly addressing the climate crisis, but more concrete action on regulations is urgently needed. 

o Set up climate “clubs” of cooperating countries, cross-border finance initiatives and just transformation partnerships, which can alter policy norms and change the course of finance through credible financial commitment devices, such as sovereign guarantees. 

Model Answers to Questions of 2022 UPSC Main Examination

Model answers for all the questions relating to Environment and Ecology that appeared in the 2022 UPSC Main Examination are given below.

2022 Mains General Studies I

Q 7. Examine the potential of wind energy in India and explain the reasons for their limited spatial spread. (Answer in 150 words) 10 marks

Answer:

As per the Indian Wind Atlas, the onshore wind power potential is 100,000 MW at 80 m height and 300 GW at 100 m height. The target is to reach 60 GW by the year 2022.

Some positive features of wind energy are:

• It is inexhaustible.
• It is available day and night.
• It is clean and non-polluting.
• There is no fuel to purchase, and the operating costs are low.
• Wind farms can be quickly set up and easily expanded.

Some disadvantages in tapping and using wind energy are:

• Initial investment is moderate to high.
• A wind farm with many wind turbines creates noise and visual pollution.
• Birds are killed by flying into the rotor blades.
• Power is intermittent since wind is not present all the time and at the same speed.
• Like solar energy, wind energy also requires batteries for storage.
• Large wind farms require large areas of land, which may not be available.
• Good wind sites are often in remote areas, where there is no local demand for power. The logistics of setting up wind farms in such areas and connecting them to the grid would not be easy.

The availability of wind energy is not uniform across the country. The seven windy states are: Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh. Even in these states, the potential depends on the actual land availability. 

Q 15. Describing the distribution of rubber-producing countries indicate the major environmental issues faced by them. (Answer in 250 words) 15 marks

Answer:

The top ten rubber-producing countries (ranked by production) are: Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, China, Vietnam, Philippines, Côte d’Ivoire, Guatemala, and Brazil.

Rubber has industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. However, the largest end-user of rubber is the automotive industry, which uses rubber to make car tyres, hoses, pipes, gaskets, and other parts.

Natural rubber comes from the latex sap from different trees. Most commonly it comes from the Hevea brasiliensis tree  – often referred to as the rubber tree.  The rubber is produced form the latex sap that is tapped from the mature tree. Rubber plantations cover nearly five million ha in the world. Synthetic rubber, on the other hand, is made from the by-products of petroleum. 

The environmental aspects of rubber production and use:

• Rubber can be recycled: Both natural and synthetic rubber items can be recycled and used for new purposes such as rubber pitches. 
• Natural rubber is biodegradable over several decades.
• Natural rubber contributes to large-scale deforestation, but a rubber tree continues to be productive if it is growing and producing sap.
• Synthetic rubber comes from fossil fuels with all their environmental impacts such as emissions and air/water pollution.
• Chemical pesticides used in natural rubber plantations have a great negative effect on the ecosystem.

Q 17. Troposphere is a very significant atmosphere layer that determines weather processes. How? (Answer in 250 words) 15 marks

Answer:

The troposphere is the lowest layer of the Earth’s atmosphere. “Tropos” means change. This layer gets its name from the weather that is constantly changing and mixing up the gases in this part of our atmosphere. The troposphere is between 8 and 14 km thick depending on where we are on Earth. It’s thinnest at the North and South Pole. 

About 75-80% of the atmosphere is in the troposphere. Most types of clouds are found in the troposphere, and almost all weather occurs within this layer because water vapour, gases and particulate matter accumulate in this layer. The weather events happening in an area are controlled by changes in air pressure. 

The troposphere is warmest at the bottom near Earth’s surface. The troposphere is coldest at its top, where it meets up with the layer above (the stratosphere) at a boundary region called the tropopause. Temperatures drop as we move upward through the troposphere. The troposphere is by far the wettest layer of the atmosphere (all the other layers contain very little moisture). 

2022 Mains General Studies III

Q 7. Discuss in detail the photochemical smog emphasising its formation, effects and mitigation. Explain the 1999 Gothenburg Protocol. (Answer in 150 words) 10 marks

Answer:

Photochemical smog is a unique type of air pollution caused by reactions between sunlight and exhaust gases (hydrocarbons) from automobiles. First, nitric oxide (NO) combines with oxygen in the atmosphere to form nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The sun’s ultraviolet rays split the nitrogen dioxide into nitric oxide and monoatomic oxygen. Then the monoatomic oxygen combines with oxygen to form ozone. In addition, nitrogen dioxide, oxygen, and hydrocarbons (unburnt petrol) react in the presence of sunlight to produce peroxyacetyl nitrate. The net result is a brownish haze. Ozone causes breathing difficulties, headaches, fatigue and can aggravate respiratory problems. The peroxyacetyl nitrate can irritate the eyes, causing them to water and sting. Photochemical smog can be mitigated by reducing the harmful emissions. 

The UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) adopted the Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone in Gothenburg (Sweden) on 30 November 1999. The Protocol sets national emission ceilings for 2010 up to 2020 for four pollutants: sulphur (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and ammonia (NH3).  

The Protocol also sets tight limit values for specific emission sources (e.g., combustion plant, electricity production, dry cleaning, automobiles, etc.) and requires best available techniques to be used to keep emissions down. VOCs emissions from such products as paints or aerosols also must be cut. Finally, farmers must take specific measures to control ammonia emissions

Q 12. Do you think India will meet 50 percent of its energy needs from renewable energy by 2030? Justify your answer. How will the shift of subsidies from fossil fuels to renewables help achieve the above objective? Explain. (Answer in 250 words) 15 marks

Answer:

Prime Minister Modi made five commitments towards climate action at the UN COP 26 Meeting in Glasgow in 2021:

• India will bring its non-fossil fuel energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030.
• By 2030, India will fulfil 50% of its energy requirement through renewable energy.
• India will cut down its net projected carbon emission by 1 bn tonnes from now until 2030.
• By 2030, India will bring down carbon intensity of its economy by more than 45%.
• By 2070, India will achieve the target of ‘net zero’ carbon emissions.

These commitments can be achieved if the Energy Conservation Amendment Bill of 2022 is passed and implemented. The features of the Bill:

• The Bill amends the Energy Conservation Act, 2001 to empower the central government to specify a carbon credit trading scheme. Carbon credit trading aims to reduce carbon emissions, and hence, address climate change. 
• Designated consumers may be required to meet a proportion of their energy needs from non-fossil sources.
• Energy consumption standards may be specified for vehicles and ships. 

• Same activity may be eligible for renewable energy, energy savings, and carbon credit certificates.  
• Designated consumers must meet certain non-fossil energy use obligation.  

Q 17. Discuss global warming and mention its effects on global climate. Explain the control measures to bring down the level of greenhouse gases which cause global warming, in the light of Kyoto Protocol, 1997. (Answer in 250 words) 15 marks

Answer:

Global warming refers to the increase in earth’s average surface temperature, while climate change refers to the long-term change in the climate of the earth or of a region on earth. Global warming refers only to the rising temperature, while climate change includes warming as well as the ‘side effects’ of warming—like melting glaciers, heavier rainstorms, or more frequent droughts.

Global warming is caused by greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Such gases trap the solar heat and warm the earth. Without this process the earth will be too cold. However, since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, we have been emitting more and more of these greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. As a result, the average global temperature has been going up leading to climate change.

The Kyoto Protocol was an international agreement to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. Its key features were:

• The Protocol committed the industrialized countries to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions by setting binding emission reduction targets.
• The Protocol only bound the developed countries because it recognized that they were largely responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere under the principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibility’. 
• Commitments under the Protocol varied from nation to nation. 
• Countries were to meet their targets primarily through national measures. However, the Protocol also offered them an additional means to meet their targets by way of market-based mechanisms.

Q 18. Explain the causes and effects of coastal erosion in India. What are the available coastal management techniques for combating the hazard? (Answer in 250 words) 15 marks

Answer:

Coastal erosion happens naturally on coastlines all over the world. However, human activities along coastlines have resulted in excessive coastal erosion. Retreating coastlines and eroding beaches have become common in most coastal zones.

Causes:

• Hydraulic action: Waves and flowing water remove rocks and sediment from a coastline.
• Attrition: Waves carry sand, rocks, and sediment, all of which can break down the rocks that are situated along the coastline.
• Sand mining
• Loss of coastal forests, mangroves and coral reefs that protect the coast.
• Major infrastructure such as ports and resorts as well as industries alter coastal processes and cause erosion.
• Sea-level rise due to climate change.

Effects:

• Loss of land and destruction of settlements leading to displacement of communities.
• Loss of biodiversity since the coastal zone contains high varieties of species.

Techniques for combating costal erosion:

• Conserve mangroves and coral reefs.
• Implement coastal regulations such as the Coastal Regulation Zone Rules in India.
• Protect the coast by building walls with specially shaped concrete blocks.