Leaked IPCC draft report warns of accelerating climate devastation

In June 2021, a 4000-page draft report of the IPCC was leaked to the press. It is a part of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report to be published in stages from late 2021. The document warns of sweeping impacts on weather events, food, ecosystems, and disease—changes expected even if global temperature rise is kept under the Paris climate agreement's second threshold of 2°C. It also calls for systems-wide changes to avert a worst-case climate scenario.

The key messages of the leaked report were:

• With 1.1 deg C of warming clocked so far, the climate is already changing. 
• Global warming will trigger tipping points in Earth’s natural systems, which will lead to widespread and possibly irrevocable disaster, unless action is taken urgently.
• Tipping points are triggered when temperatures reach a certain level, whereby one impact rapidly leads to a series of cascading events with vast repercussions. The draft details at least 12 potential tipping points. Some examples are:
• As rising temperatures lead to the melting of Arctic permafrost, the unfreezing soil releases methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that in turn causes more heating.
• The melting of polar ice sheets, which once under way may be almost impossible to reverse even if carbon emissions are rapidly reduced, and which would raise sea levels catastrophically over many decades.
• The possibility of the Amazon rainforest switching suddenly to savannah, which scientists have said could come quickly and with relatively small temperature rises.
• The impacts are likely to be much closer than most people realise and will fundamentally reshape life in the coming decades even if greenhouse gas emissions are brought under some control.

• Tens of millions more people are likely to face chronic hunger by 2050, and 130 million more could experience extreme poverty within a decade if inequality is allowed to deepen.
• In 2050, coastal cities on the “front line” of the climate crisis will see hundreds of millions of people at risk from floods and increasingly frequent storm surges made more deadly by rising seas.
• Some 350 million more people living in urban areas will be exposed to water scarcity from severe droughts at 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming – 410 million at two degrees Celsius.
• That extra half-a-degree will also mean 420 million more people exposed to extreme and potentially lethal heatwaves.

• Species extinction, more widespread disease, unliveable heat, ecosystem collapse, cities menaced by rising seas – these and other devastating climate effects are accelerating and are bound to become painfully obvious before a child born today turns 30.
• Current levels of adaptation will be inadequate to respond to future climate risks. We need transformational change operating on processes and behaviours at all levels: individual, communities, business, institutions and governments. We must redefine our way of life and consumption.
• The worst is yet to come, affecting our children’s and grandchildren’s lives much more than our own. Life on Earth can recover from a drastic climate shift by evolving into new species and creating new ecosystems … humans cannot.

PM Modi’s Address at the UN High-level Dialogue on Desertification, Land Degradation and Drought

On June 14, 2021, the UN General Assembly held a High-level Dialogue on Desertification, Land Degradation and Drought. Indian PM Narendra Modi spoke at the meeting in his capacity as the President of UNCCD COP 14, which was held in New Delhi in 2019. The key messages of his speech are given below:

• Land is the fundamental building block for supporting all lives and livelihoods and all of us understand that the web of life functions as an interconnected system.
• Sadly, land degradation affects over two-thirds of the world today. If left unchecked it will erode the very foundations of our societies, economies, food security, health, safety and quality of life. Therefore we have to reduce the tremendous pressure on land and its resources. Clearly a lot of work lies ahead of us. But we can do it. We can do it together.
• In India we have always given importance to land and considered the sacred Earth as our mother. India has taken the lead to highlight land degradation issues at international forums. The Delhi Declaration of 2019 called for better access and stewardship over land, and emphasised gender-sensitive transformative projects.
• In India, over the last 10 years, around 3 million ha of forest cover has been added. This has enhanced the combined forest cover to almost one fourth of the country's total area. We are on track to achieve our national commitment of Land Degradation Neutrality. We are also working towards restoring 26 million ha of degraded land by 2030. This would contribute to India's commitment to achieve an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
• We believe that restoration of land will start a virtuous cycle of good soil health, increased land productivity, food security and improved livelihoods. In many parts of India we have taken up some novel approaches. To give you just one example: The Banni region in Rann of Kutch in Gujarat suffers from highly degraded land and receives very little rainfall. In that region land restoration is done by developing grasslands which helps in achieving land degradation neutrality. It also supports pastoral activities and livelihood by promoting animal husbandry. In the same spirit we need to devise effective strategies for land restoration while promoting indigenous techniques.
• Land degradation poses a special challenge to the developing world. In the spirit of South-South cooperation, India is assisting fellow developing countries to develop land restoration strategies. A Centre of Excellence is being set up in India to promote a scientific approach towards land degradation issues.
• It is mankind's collective responsibility to reverse the damage to land caused by human activity. It is our sacred duty to leave a healthy planet for our future generations.