2019 UNEP Emissions Gap Report

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released the 2019 Emissions Gap Report in November. UNEP also issued a list of FAQs:

1. What is the “Emissions Gap”?

The Emissions Gap could also be called the “Commitment Gap”.  It measures the gap between what we need to do and what we are actually doing to tackle climate change. The gap is the difference between the low level of emissions that the world needs to drop to, compared with the projected level of emissions based on countries’ current commitments to decarbonization.

2. Why does the Emissions Gap Matter? 

The gap is important because if we can’t close it and meet the emissions reduction target, we will face increasingly severe climate impacts worldwide. It is important that policymakers, and their citizens, know what the gap is so that the commitments countries are making are sufficient to close the gap.

3. What does the Emissions Gap Report measure?

This annual report from UNEP examines the progress of countries to close the gap via their commitments to emissions reduction, to ultimately stop climate change. 

The Emissions Gap Report measures and projects three key trendlines: 

1. The amount of greenhouse gas emissions every year up to 2030
2. The commitments countries are making to reduce their emissions and the impact these commitments are likely to have on overall emission reduction
3. The pace at which emissions must be reduced to reach an emission low that would limit temperature increase to 1.5^oC.

The report also identifies key opportunities for each country to increase the pace of emission reduction necessary to close the gap. 

4. How are we doing?

In 10 years of producing the emissions gap report, the gap between what we should be doing and what we actually are is as wide as ever.  

On the brink of 2020, we now need to reduce emissions by 7.6% every year from 2020 to 2030. If we do not, we will miss a closing moment in history to limit global warming to 1.5°C. If we do nothing beyond our current, inadequate commitments to halt climate change, temperatures can be expected to rise 3.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with devastating effect. 

5. Why are annual reductions so important?

Ten years ago, if countries had acted on this science, governments would have needed to reduce emissions by 3.3% each year. Today, we need to reduce emissions by 7.6% each year. By just 2025 the cut needed will steepen to 15.5% each year. Every day we delay, the more extreme, difficult and expensive the cuts become.

6. Where do the emissions come from?

G20 nations collectively account for 78% of all emissions, but only five G20 members (the EU and four individual members) have committed to long-term zero emission targets, of which three are currently in the process of passing legislation and two have recently passed legislation. The top four emitters (China, USA, EU28 and India) contribute to over 55% of the total emissions over the last decade, excluding emissions from land-use change such as deforestation. If land-use change emissions were included, the rankings would change, with Brazil likely to be the largest emitter. The largest share of emissions come from the energy sector and its fossil fuel emissions. Industry produces the next largest footprint, followed by forestry, transport, agriculture and buildings.

7. Can we still close the gap? Yes, we can!  

Climate change can still be limited to 1.5°C degrees. We must halve our emissions by 2030—this will take a 7.6% cut in emissions every year from 2020. The good news is that we have the technology and science to decarbonize our energy sources, transport systems and cities. We have the knowledge to halt deforestation and scale reforestation. And these actions are affordable today.  What it takes is commitment. Commitment from governments, backed by their citizens.

Luckily, there is also an increased understanding of the multiple benefits to act on climate change—such as cleaner air, better health, greener towns and cities, and growth within the renewable energy sector.  Options for action, and the will to implement them, are growing just as fast as this understanding.

8. What are possible solutions to close the gap?

A full decarbonization of the energy sector is necessary and possible. Renewables and energy efficiency are critical to the energy transition. The potential emission reduction thanks to renewable energy electricity totals 12.1 gigatonnes by 2050. That’s equivalent to the annual output of nearly two and a half million coal power stations: more than are operating in the world today. Electrification of transport could reduce the sector’s CO₂ emissions by a huge 72% by 2050. Each sector and each country has unique opportunities to harness renewable energy, protect natural resources, lives and livelihoods, and transition to a decarbonization pathway.

Climate Change Performance Index shows decline in emissions of majority of countries

The 2020 Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) was released at the COP 25 Conference in Madrid on December 10, 2019. The CCPI is an independent monitoring tool of countries’ climate protection performance. It aims to enhance transparency in international climate politics and enables the comparability of climate protection efforts and progress made by individual countries.

The ranking results are defined by a country’s aggregated performance in 14 indicators within the four categories “GHG Emissions”, “Renewable Energy” and “Energy Use”, as well as on “Climate Policy”, in a globally unique policy section of the index.

Within the categories GHG Emissions, Renewable Energy and Energy Use the CCPI also evaluates to what extent the respective countries are taking adequate action to be on track towards the global Paris-goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C. Therefore, the CCPI is an important tool to enhance transparency in international climate politics and enables comparison of climate protection efforts and progress made by individual countries.

2020 CCPI Results:

The new Climate Change Performance Index shows signs of a global turnaround in emissions, including declining coal consumption. However, several large countries are still trying to resist this trend - above all the US. We see opportunities for a halt to rising global emissions - but much will depend on further developments in China and the elections in the US. Both countries are at the cross roads.

• In 31 of the 57 high emitting countries assessed, collectively responsible for 90% of emissions, falling emission trends have been recorded.
• Global coal consumption is falling.
• The results illustrate the main regional differences in climate protection and performance within the 57 evaluated countries and the EU.
• No country performs well enough in all index categories to achieve an overall very high rating in the index. Therefore, once again the first three ranks remain empty. 

• Sweden leads the ranking on rank 4 and USA for the first time replaces Saudi Arabia as worst performing country.
• Australia, Saudi Arabia and especially the USA give cause for great concern with their low to very low performance in emissions and renewable energy development as well as climate policy. With these three governments massively influenced by the coal and oil lobby, there are hardly any signs of serious climate policy in sight. On the other hand, global coal consumption is falling and the boom in renewable energy continues.
• China, the largest global emitter, once again slightly improves its ranking to 30th place ("medium"). China scores with a very good performance for its increased share of renewables in the energy mix over recent years and relatively good policy ratings, but the poor performance in emissions and energy efficiency still weighs heavily. If China implements its extensive plans for new coal-fired power plants, there is a risk of a severe relapse to the bottom of the ranking.
• India is now within the top 10 countries.

Ranking of Selected Countries

(First 3 ranks not awarded to any country)

Rank	Country
4	Sweden
5	Denmark
6	Morocco
7	UK
8	Lithuania
9	India
10	Finland
18	France
19	Egypt
22	European Union
23	Germany
30	China
32	Mexico
36	South Africa
39	Indonesia
51	Japan
52	Russia
53	Malaysia
55	Canada
56	Australia
57	Iran
58	Korea
59	Chinese Taipei
60	Saudi Arabia
61	US

This science based assessment shows again that in particular the large climate polluters do hardly anything for the transformational shift we need to deep emissions reductions to curtail the run to potentially irreversible climate change. If necessary and strongly enhanced climate finance and loss and damage support by the wealthy nations for the poorer countries were to be included also the various higher ranking European countries would be performing much lower in the scores.

Thousands of migratory birds die in Sambhar Lake, a Ramsar site

In November 2019, thousands of migratory birds were found dead at Sambhar Lake, about 80 km southwest of Jaipur city in Rajasthan.

Sambhar Lake is India’s largest inland saltwater lake, 230 sq km in area, spread mostly across Jaipur and Nagaur districts. It has a catchment area of 5700 sq km, with the water depth fluctuating between 60 cm in the dry season to about 3 m at the end of the monsoon.

Every year, the lake attracts thousands of migratory birds. A total 83 species of water birds have been recorded at the lake, the most abundant of which are little grebe, great crested grebe, great white pelican, little cormorant, black stork, and darter, apart from various species of plovers, egrets, herons, and geese.

Beginning on November 10, 2019, birds of about 25-30 species were found dead, including northern shoveller, Brahminy duck, pied avocet, Kentish plover and tufted duck. By November 20, 2019, the Rajasthan government had buried 18,422 bird carcasses to prevent the spread of infection. The number of dead birds being found each day began declining after November 20.

What are the possible reasons for the bird deaths?

The cause of death seems to be avian botulism, but this has not been officially confirmed. After a Division Bench of the Rajasthan High Court took cognisance of the deaths, the state government listed likely reasons:

·      Viral infection

·      Toxicity, as a new area has been filled up after almost 20 years, and there could be higher concentration of salts along the edges;

·      Bacteriological infection

·      Higher temperature and high water levels due to a good monsoon: This might have led to an increase in competition for resources. The weaker individuals, exhausted from the long journey, perhaps were unable to compete, and may have succumbed to stress emanating from the shortage of food, susceptibility to disease/pollutants/toxins and other habitat-related factors in the wintering grounds, the government suggested. If that is the reason, the government said it is expected that with fall of temperature and lowering of water levels, incidence of such mortality will go down

Is there a concern for human health? Humans are primarily at risk from avian botulism only if they eat infected fish or birds.

What are the reasons that make salt concentration a concern?

In a 2016 directive, the National Green Tribunal had noted the impact of the salt industry, including unauthorised salt pans, on the ecosystem of Sambhar Lake and asked the state government to cancel allotment of salt pans. The Wildlife Institute of India, the State Pollution Control Board and Sambhar Salts Ltd have collected samples to test for water quality. Part of the lake has been leased to Sambhar Salts, a joint venture of Hindustan Salts Limited and the state government. Sambhar Salts produces 196,000 tonnes of clean salt every year, which is around 9% of India’s salt production.

The lake was recognised as a wetland of international importance when it was designated as a UNESCO Ramsar Site in 1990. Today, as per NGO Wetlands International, it has the worst possible Wetland Health Score.

What should the government do?

The government should pass legislation to create a Sambhar Lake Development and Conservation Authority. This authority should be given full responsibility of Sambhar Lake. Currently, no one is responsible and every government department passes the buck, be it Forest or Irrigation. The Revenue Department says they had the land once; Panchayat says that they had the land but gave it to Hindustan Salts Limited, and Hindustan Salts is not ready to talk.

What are the issues at Sambhar that need to be addressed immediately?

There is no document about management of Sambhar Lake. We should study why the water from four rivers, which flows into the lake, has decreased over the years. We should also study the hydrology, sedimentation, the increase or decrease in depth of the lake, as well as birds, animals, their food sources, etc.

(This post is based on articles in the Indian Express.)